Predictive game patterns in World Rugby Sevens Series games using Markov chain analysis

Abstract The purpose of this research was to identify game patterns in rugby sevens, and utilise a Markov chain, to detect how scoring plays are likely to develop. Using notational analysis, a total of 5413 phases were coded from 117 Men’s World Rugby Sevens Series games. Results of a Fisher’s exact test identified significant differences between game patterns in pool games and finals games (p < 0.01) and category 1 games (top 4 ranked vs top 4 ranked teams) and category 2 games (all other games) (p < 0.01). Markov chain analysis revealed that some scoring phases were a result of the previous phase actions. These findings met the Markov assumption that the probability of transition to the next state depends only on the current state. Scoring phases that met the Markov assumption tended to relate to transitional plays resulting from turnovers in possession. The findings suggest that rugby sevens teams should incorporate unstructured practise that involving transitioning from defence to attack, attack to defence and structured defence to unstructured defence into their training.

[1]  T. Reilly,et al.  Patterns of Play of Successful and Unsuccessful Teams in Men’s 7-a-side Rugby Union , 2005 .

[2]  I M Franks,et al.  In search of invariant athletic behaviour in sport: an example from championship squash match-play. , 1996, Journal of sports sciences.

[3]  Keith Davids,et al.  Manipulating Constraints to Train Decision Making in Rugby Union , 2008 .

[4]  David F. Percy,et al.  Strategy selection and outcome prediction in sport using dynamic learning for stochastic processes , 2015, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[5]  Denny Meyer,et al.  Statistical Analysis of Notational AFL Data Using Continuous Time Markov Chains. , 2006, Journal of sports science & medicine.

[6]  Hui Zhang,et al.  A Markov Chain Model of Elite Table Tennis Competition , 2010 .

[7]  Mike Hughes,et al.  Analysis of Notation Data : Reliability , 2015 .

[8]  I M Franks,et al.  Development, application, and limitation of a stochastic Markov model in explaining championship squash performance. , 1996, Research quarterly for exercise and sport.

[9]  G. Shukur,et al.  Coach Succession and Team Performance: The Impact of Ability and Timing -- Swedish Ice Hockey Data , 2009 .

[10]  Keith Davids,et al.  Power law distributions in pattern dynamics of attacker-defender dyads in the team sport of Rugby Union : phenomena in a region of self-organized criticality? , 2009 .

[11]  John Cronin,et al.  Match Analysis and Player Characteristics in Rugby Sevens , 2014, Sports Medicine.

[12]  K NewtonPaul,et al.  Monte Carlo Tennis: A Stochastic Markov Chain Model , 2009 .

[13]  Ian M. Franks,et al.  The Essentials of Performance Analysis: An Introduction , 2007 .

[14]  G. Higham,et al.  Patterns of play associated with success in international rugby sevens , 2014 .

[15]  Júlio Garganta,et al.  Trends of tactical performance analysis in team sports: bridging the gap between research, training and competition. , 2009 .

[16]  R Core Team,et al.  R: A language and environment for statistical computing. , 2014 .

[17]  Christopher D. Askew,et al.  Effective attacking strategies in rugby union , 2010 .

[18]  Ian M. Franks,et al.  Modeling competitive squash performance from quantitative analysis , 1995 .

[19]  Ian M. Franks,et al.  AN OVERVIEW OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOTATIONAL ANALYSIS , 2007 .

[20]  D. Pyne,et al.  Performance indicators related to points scoring and winning in international rugby sevens. , 2014, Journal of sports science & medicine.

[21]  Peter O’Donoghue,et al.  Data Analysis in Sport , 2014 .

[22]  James F. Barkell,et al.  Perturbation effects in men’s and women’s international sevens , 2017 .

[23]  Wilbur Kraak,et al.  Ruck-Play as Performance Indicator during the 2010 Six Nations Championship , 2014 .

[24]  James F. Barkell,et al.  Effective strategies at the ruck in men’s and women’s World Rugby Sevens Series , 2018 .

[25]  Keith Lyons,et al.  Effective Defensive Strategies at the Ruck Contest in Rugby Union , 2013 .

[26]  D. O’Connor,et al.  Characteristics of winning men’s and women’s sevens rugby teams throughout the knockout Cup stages of international tournaments , 2016 .

[27]  M.Hughes S.M.Cooper and A.Nevill Analysis of notation data: reliability , 2004 .

[28]  N. Gill,et al.  Defensive And Attacking Performance Indicators In Rugby Sevens , 2016 .

[29]  I M Franks,et al.  A stochastic approach to predicting competition squash match-play. , 1994, Journal of sports sciences.

[30]  Nobuyuki Yagi,et al.  Bayesian event detection for sport games with hidden Markov model , 2011, Pattern Analysis and Applications.

[31]  S. Kullback,et al.  Tests for Contingency Tables and Marltov Chains , 1962 .