A statistical-dynamical method for predicting long term coastal evolution

Abstract A new approach to the problem of predicting long term coastline evolution is described. The cumulative effect of shoreline processes is inferred by inverting an extended form of one-line equation. Results from the inversion process are then used to predict future coastal evolution on the basis of past historical changes. The data required are charts showing the historical changes in coastline position. By way of validation, the model is applied to a region on the east coast of the United Kingdom where a 12 year forecast is made and compared against recent aerial survey data. The results are encouraging and suggest that the method has a predictive capability, suitable for strategic studies of regional shoreline evolution.

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