Future Risk for Southern Ocean Ecosystem Services Under Climate Change

The Southern Ocean supports ecosystem services that are important on a global scale. Climate change and human activities (tourism, fishing, and research) will affect both the demand for, and the provision of, these services into the future. Here we synthesize recent assessments of the current status and expected future climate-driven changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems and evaluate the potential consequences of these changes for the provision of ecosystem services. We explore in detail three key services (the ‘blue carbon’ pathway, the Antarctic krill fishery, and Antarctic tourism), tracing the consequences of climate change from physical drivers through biological impacts to the benefits to humans. We consider potential non-climatic drivers of change, current and future demands for the services, and the main global and regional policy frameworks that could be used to manage risks to the provision of these services in a changing climate. We also develop a formal representation of the network of interactions between the suite of potential drivers and the suite of services, providing a framework to capture the complexity of this network and its embedded feedback loops. Increased consideration of the linkages and feedbacks between drivers and ecosystem services will be required to underpin robust management responses into the future.

[1]  Expert Reviewers of the IPCC Special Report on the Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[2]  K. Steffen,et al.  Framing and Context of the Report , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[3]  Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[4]  D. Roberts,et al.  The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate , 2022 .

[5]  R. Koschel,et al.  Primary Production , 2021, Tropical Marine Ecology.

[6]  Vivitskaia J. D. Tulloch,et al.  Global Drivers on Southern Ocean Ecosystems: Changing Physical Environments and Anthropogenic Pressures in an Earth System , 2020, Frontiers in Marine Science.

[7]  E. Murphy,et al.  Continuous moulting by Antarctic krill drives major pulses of carbon export in the north Scotia Sea, Southern Ocean , 2020, Nature Communications.

[8]  P. Convey,et al.  Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for Antarctica , 2020, Antarctic Science.

[9]  A. Brierley,et al.  Successful ecosystem-based management of Antarctic krill should address uncertainties in krill recruitment, behaviour and ecological adaptation , 2020, Communications Earth & Environment.

[10]  Guang Yang,et al.  Changing circumpolar distributions and isoscapes of Antarctic krill: Indo‐Pacific habitat refuges counter long‐term degradation of the Atlantic sector , 2020, Limnology and Oceanography.

[11]  S. Kawaguchi,et al.  Krill Fishery , 2020, Fisheries and Aquaculture.

[12]  P. Boyd,et al.  Changing Biogeochemistry of the Southern Ocean and Its Ecosystem Implications , 2020, Frontiers in Marine Science.

[13]  G. Mace,et al.  The natural capital framework for sustainably efficient and equitable decision making , 2020, Nature Sustainability.

[14]  D. Barnes,et al.  Variation in zoobenthic blue carbon in the Arctic's Barents Sea shelf sediments , 2020, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

[15]  S. Kawaguchi,et al.  Temperature–Induced Hatch Failure and Nauplii Malformation in Antarctic Krill , 2020, Frontiers in Marine Science.

[16]  E. Murphy,et al.  Recent Decrease of Summer Sea Ice in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica , 2020, Geophysical Research Letters.

[17]  Vinton G. Cerf,et al.  Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic , 2020, Commun. ACM.

[18]  E. Murphy,et al.  Circumpolar projections of Antarctic krill growth potential , 2020, Nature Climate Change.

[19]  D. Gerdes,et al.  Benthic fauna declined on a whitening Antarctic continental shelf , 2020, Nature Communications.

[20]  C. Bitz,et al.  Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6 , 2020, Geophysical Research Letters.

[21]  J. Melbourne-Thomas,et al.  The policy relevance of Southern Ocean food web structure: Implications of food web change for fisheries, conservation and carbon sequestration , 2020 .

[22]  E. Murphy,et al.  1st Southern Ocean Regional Workshop for the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development Report , 2020 .

[23]  G. Watters,et al.  Long-term observations from Antarctica demonstrate that mismatched scales of fisheries management and predator-prey interaction lead to erroneous conclusions about precaution , 2020, Scientific Reports.

[24]  M. Haward,et al.  Protecting Antarctic blue carbon: as marine ice retreats can the law fill the gap? , 2020 .

[25]  S. Morley,et al.  Invasive non‐native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region , 2020, Global change biology.

[26]  R. Furness,et al.  Reference points for predators will progress ecosystem‐based management of fisheries , 2020, Fish and Fisheries.

[27]  N. Bindoff,et al.  Antarctic Futures: An Assessment of Climate-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Service Provisioning in the Southern Ocean. , 2020, Annual review of marine science.

[28]  T. Hart,et al.  Divergent trophic responses of sympatric penguin species to historic anthropogenic exploitation and recent climate change , 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[29]  F. Müller,et al.  Ecosystem Service Supply in the Antarctic Peninsula Region: Evaluating an Expert-Based Assessment Approach and a Novel Seascape Data Model , 2019, Front. Environ. Sci..

[30]  S. Chown,et al.  The State and Future of Antarctic Environments in a Global Context , 2019, Annual Review of Environment and Resources.

[31]  L. Pertierra,et al.  Evaluating ecosystem services in Antarctica - why are we falling behind? , 2019, Antarctic Science.

[32]  P. Boyd,et al.  The importance of Antarctic krill in biogeochemical cycles , 2019, Nature Communications.

[33]  G. Tarling,et al.  Habitat partitioning in Antarctic krill: Spawning hotspots and nursery areas , 2019, PloS one.

[34]  J. Rogelj,et al.  The Antarctic Peninsula Under a 1.5°C Global Warming Scenario , 2019, Front. Environ. Sci..

[35]  S. Candy,et al.  Clarifying trends in the density of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba Dana, 1850 in the South Atlantic. A response to Hill et al , 2019, Journal of Crustacean Biology.

[36]  V. Siegel,et al.  Evidence for a decline in the population density of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba Dana, 1850 still stands. A comment on Cox et al , 2019, Journal of Crustacean Biology.

[37]  E. Murphy,et al.  Circumpolar patterns in Antarctic krill larval recruitment: an environmentally driven model , 2019, Marine Ecology Progress Series.

[38]  Éva E Plagányi,et al.  Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change , 2019, Global change biology.

[39]  S. Henson,et al.  Krill faecal pellets drive hidden pulses of particulate organic carbon in the marginal ice zone , 2019, Nature Communications.

[40]  V. Siegel,et al.  Krill (Euphausia superba) distribution contracts southward during rapid regional warming , 2019, Nature Climate Change.

[41]  S. Morley,et al.  Predicting Which Species Succeed in Climate-Forced Polar Seas , 2019, Front. Mar. Sci..

[42]  N. Hanley,et al.  The Challenge of Implementing the Marine Ecosystem Service Concept , 2018, Front. Mar. Sci..

[43]  S. Candy,et al.  No evidence for a decline in the density of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba Dana, 1850, in the Southwest Atlantic sector between 1976 and 2016 , 2018, Journal of Crustacean Biology.

[44]  L. Peck.  Antarctic Marine Biodiversity: Adaptations, Environments and Responses to Change , 2018, Oceanography and Marine Biology.

[45]  G. Tarling,et al.  Varying depth and swarm dimensions of open-ocean Antarctic krill Euphausia superba Dana, 1850 (Euphausiacea) over diel cycles , 2018, Journal of Crustacean Biology.

[46]  T. Tin,et al.  Twenty years of protection of wilderness values in Antarctica , 2018, The Polar Journal.

[47]  W. Cheung,et al.  Preparing ocean governance for species on the move , 2018, Science.

[48]  A. Fleming,et al.  Icebergs, sea ice, blue carbon and Antarctic climate feedbacks , 2018, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[49]  A. Terauds,et al.  Antarctic environmental protection: Strengthening the links between science and governance , 2018 .

[50]  G. Watters,et al.  Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea , 2018, PloS one.

[51]  Jane Verbitsky.  Ecosystem services and Antarctica: The time has come? , 2017 .

[52]  Paula Antunes,et al.  Integrating methods for ecosystem service assessment: Experiences from real world situations , 2017 .

[53]  Susanne Kortsch,et al.  Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities , 2017, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[54]  C. David,et al.  Spatio-temporal variability in the winter diet of larval and juvenile Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in ice-covered waters , 2017 .

[55]  Walker O. Smith,et al.  A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications , 2017, Front. Mar. Sci..

[56]  T. Krumpen,et al.  The winter pack-ice zone provides a sheltered but food-poor habitat for larval Antarctic krill , 2017, Nature Ecology & Evolution.

[57]  L. Peck,et al.  Warming by 1°C Drives Species and Assemblage Level Responses in Antarctica’s Marine Shallows , 2017, Current Biology.

[58]  B. Frame,et al.  Is it all going south? Four future scenarios for Antarctica , 2017, Polar Record.

[59]  E. Murphy,et al.  Restricted regions of enhanced growth of Antarctic krill in the circumpolar Southern Ocean , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[60]  J. Turner,et al.  Solve Antarctica’s sea-ice puzzle , 2017, Nature.

[61]  D. Barnes.  Iceberg killing fields limit huge potential for benthic blue carbon in Antarctic shallows , 2017, Global change biology.

[62]  Ben Raymond,et al.  Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat , 2017, Nature.

[63]  G. Tarling,et al.  Polar oceans in a changing climate , 2017, Current Biology.

[64]  L. Pertierra,et al.  High Resolution Spatial Mapping of Human Footprint across Antarctica and Its Implications for the Strategic Conservation of Avifauna , 2017, PloS one.

[65]  B. Bryan,et al.  Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review , 2017, Global change biology.

[66]  G. Mace,et al.  Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: prospects and policy , 2016, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[67]  T. Koellner,et al.  Towards mapping and assessing antarctic marine ecosystem services – The weddell sea case study , 2016 .

[68]  E. Murphy,et al.  Valuing biodiversity and ecosystem services: a useful way to manage and conserve marine resources? , 2016, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[69]  E. Murphy,et al.  Understanding the structure and functioning of polar pelagic ecosystems to predict the impacts of change , 2016, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[70]  S. Kawaguchi,et al.  Under ice habitats for Antarctic krill larvae: Could less mean more under climate warming? , 2016 .

[71]  A. Piñones,et al.  Projected changes of Antarctic krill habitat by the end of the 21st century , 2016 .

[72]  A. Justel,et al.  Assessing environmental conditions of Antarctic footpaths to support management decisions. , 2016, Journal of environmental management.

[73]  O. Godø,et al.  Is current management of the Antarctic krill fishery in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean precautionary , 2016 .

[74]  Simeon L. Hill,et al.  Stakeholder perspectives on ecosystem-based management of the Antarctic krill fishery , 2016 .

[75]  G. Tarling,et al.  Growth and shrinkage in Antarctic krill Euphausia superba is sex-dependent , 2016 .

[76]  D. Wilton,et al.  Enhanced Southern Ocean marine productivity due to fertilization by giant icebergs , 2016 .

[77]  D. Barnes.  Antarctic sea ice losses drive gains in benthic carbon drawdown , 2015, Current Biology.

[78]  M. Feldman,et al.  Natural capital and ecosystem services informing decisions: From promise to practice , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[79]  A. Bowie,et al.  Correction: The Biogeochemical Role of Baleen Whales and Krill in Southern Ocean Nutrient Cycling , 2015, PloS one.

[80]  G. Hosie,et al.  The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses ‐ an integrated circumpolar assessment , 2015, Global change biology.

[81]  Philippe Ziegler,et al.  Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota , 2014, Global change biology.

[82]  J. Forcada,et al.  Climate change selects for heterozygosity in a declining fur seal population , 2014, Nature.

[83]  V. Smetácek,et al.  Whales sustain fisheries: Blue whales stimulate primary production in the Southern Ocean , 2014 .

[84]  S. Hill,et al.  Could Ecosystem Assessment improve the protection of Antarctic ecosystems? , 2013, Antarctic Science.

[85]  A. Ishida,et al.  Risk maps for Antarctic krill under projected Southern Ocean acidification , 2013 .

[86]  Oscar Schofield,et al.  The vision for a Southern Ocean Observing System , 2013 .

[87]  A. Atkinson,et al.  Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean , 2013, PloS one.

[88]  E. Murphy,et al.  Ecosystem services of the Southern Ocean: trade-offs in decision-making , 2013, Antarctic Science.

[89]  P. Fretwell,et al.  Spatial distribution of management measures, Antarctic krill catch and Southern Ocean bioregions: implications for conservation planning , 2013 .

[90]  E. Hofmann,et al.  Modeling the remote and local connectivity of Antarctic Krill Populations along the Western Antarctic Peninsula , 2013 .

[91]  S. Jacobs,et al.  Antarctic climate change and the environment: an update , 2013, Polar Record.

[92]  S. Hill.  From strategic ambiguity to technical reference points in the Antarctic krill fishery: the worst journey in the world? , 2013, Environmental Conservation.

[93]  S. Hill.  Prospects for a Sustainable Increase in the Availability of Long Chain Omega 3s: Lessons from the Antarctic Krill Fishery , 2013 .

[94]  Ben Raymond,et al.  Comprehensive evaluation of model uncertainty in qualitative network analyses , 2012 .

[95]  A. Lombana,et al.  Impact of climate change on Antarctic krill , 2018 .

[96]  B. Raymond,et al.  Continent-wide risk assessment for the establishment of nonindigenous species in Antarctica , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[97]  K. Chan,et al.  Rethinking ecosystem services to better address and navigate cultural values , 2012 .

[98]  Qichao Yang,et al.  Relative Changes in Krill Abundance Inferred from Antarctic Fur Seal , 2011, PloS one.

[99]  E. Achterberg,et al.  Seabed foraging by Antarctic krill: Implications for stock assessment, bentho‐pelagic coupling, and the vertical transfer of iron , 2011 .

[100]  A. McIntosh,et al.  From frozen continent to tourism hotspot? Five decades of Antarctic tourism development and management, and a glimpse into the future , 2011 .

[101]  R. Aronson,et al.  Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences Anthropogenic Impacts on Marine Ecosystems in Antarctica , 2022 .

[102]  Andrew Fleming,et al.  Negative feedback in the cold: ice retreat produces new carbon sinks in Antarctica , 2010 .

[103]  Daniel Pauly,et al.  Failing the high seas: A global evaluation of regional fisheries management organizations , 2010 .

[104]  E. Stewart,et al.  Last-chance tourism: the boom, doom, and gloom of visiting vanishing destinations , 2010 .

[105]  J. Montoya,et al.  Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[106]  P. Peeters,et al.  Antarctic cruise tourism: the paradoxes of ambassadorship, “last chance tourism” and greenhouse gas emissions , 2010 .

[107]  John Turner,et al.  Antarctic climate change and the environment , 2009, Antarctic Science.

[108]  P. Trathan,et al.  The risk to fishery performance associated with spatially resolved management of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) harvesting , 2009 .

[109]  H. Mooney,et al.  Biodiversity, climate change, and ecosystem services , 2009 .

[110]  V. Siegel,et al.  A re-appraisal of the total biomass and annual production of Antarctic krill , 2009 .

[111]  John Turner,et al.  State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system , 2009 .

[112]  K. Arrigo,et al.  Primary production in the Southern Ocean, 1997–2006 , 2008 .

[113]  E. Murphy,et al.  Oceanic circumpolar habitats of Antarctic krill , 2008 .

[114]  M. Lamers,et al.  Permanent land-based facilities for tourism in Antarctica : The need for regulation , 2008 .

[115]  S. Nicol,et al.  Chapter 5. Population Parameters , 2007 .

[116]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for Policymakers , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[117]  J. Burger,et al.  Responses of Emperor Penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) to encounters with ecotourists while commuting to and from their breeding colony , 2007, Polar Biology.

[118]  M. Vernet,et al.  Ecological responses of Antarctic krill to environmental variability: can we predict the future? , 2007, Antarctic Science.

[119]  Maria Vernet,et al.  Marine pelagic ecosystems: the West Antarctic Peninsula , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[120]  Peter Rothery,et al.  Natural growth rates in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba): II. Predictive models based on food, temperature, body length, sex, and maturity stage , 2006 .

[121]  Victor Smetacek,et al.  Polar ocean ecosystems in a changing world , 2005, Nature.

[122]  S. Garcia,et al.  Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries , 2005, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[123]  S. Santavirta,et al.  Current management , 2005, Acta orthopaedica.

[124]  Eileen E. Hofmann,et al.  Advection, krill, and Antarctic marine ecosystems , 2004, Antarctic Science.

[125]  Peter Rothery,et al.  Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean , 2004, Nature.

[126]  M. Abbott,et al.  Phytoplankton chlorophyll distibutions and primary production in the Southern Ocean , 2000 .

[127]  Farooq Azam,et al.  Microbial Control of Oceanic Carbon Flux: The Plot Thickens , 1998, Science.

[128]  R. O'Neill,et al.  The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital , 1997, Nature.

[129]  A. Ginsburg.  System of Environmental-Economic Accounting 2012 – Experimental Ecosystem Accounting Revision First Global Consultation on : Chapter 3 : Spatial units for Ecosystem Accounting Chapter 4 : Accounting for Ecosystem Extent Chapter 5 : Accounting for Ecosystem Condition , 2020 .

[130]  Unai Pascual,et al.  Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services-ADVANCE UNEDITED VERSION , 2019 .

[131]  P. Trathan,et al.  The Importance of Krill Predation in the Southern Ocean , 2016 .

[132]  S. Morand,et al.  Impact of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services , 2016 .

[133]  V. Siegel,et al.  Distribution, Biomass and Demography of Antarctic Krill, Euphausia superba , 2016 .

[134]  S. Nicol,et al.  The Fishery for Antarctic Krill: Its Current Status and Management Regime , 2016 .

[135]  M. Collins,et al.  The South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands MPA: protecting a biodiverse oceanic island chain situated in the flow of the antarctic circumpolar current. , 2014, Advances in marine biology.

[136]  J. Jabour.  Strategic Management and Regulation of Antarctic Tourism , 2014 .

[137]  Jean-Pascal van Ypersele de Strihou.  Climate Change 2014 - Synthesis Report , 2015 .

[138]  Mark Cannon,et al.  A potential feedback approach to ecosystem-based management: model predictive control of the Antarctic krill fishery , 2013 .

[139]  E. Murphy,et al.  A foodweb model to explore uncertainties in the South Georgia shelf pelagic ecosystem , 2012 .

[140]  M. Lamers,et al.  Last chance tourism in Antarctica – Cruising for change? , 2011 .

[141]  M. Lamers,et al.  Estimating the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Antarctic Tourism , 2007 .

[142]  Millenium Ecosystem Assessment.  Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis , 2005 .