Emergent dynamics of the climate–economy system in the Anthropocene

Global CO2 emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO2 emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate–economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate–economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO2 emissions that cause damped or long-term boom–bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate–economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate–economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime.

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