Growth projections and development trends for nuclear power The " new generation " of reactor designs reflects the influence of past experience and today ' s demands

The world's population continues to increase, having nearly doubled during the past third of a century. World energy consumption has increased even more rapidly, having more than quadrupled over the same period. This increase in energy consumption as compared to population growth has been taking place proportionately faster in the developing countries over the past 15 years than in those that are already industrialized. (See accompanying figure.) It clearly indicates that initial development requires energy in increasing per capita quantities as efforts are made to make quantum improvements in the welfare of a country and its people. For the industrialized countries, the same proportionately larger demand for energy was evident until the ' 'oil crisis" of the early 1970s. Since that time, and particularly in countries which depend to a large extent on imported oil, an energy conservation/efficiency ethic has become a way of life and relatively smaller increases, and in some countries even decreases, in the year-to-year consumption of energy occurred. On the whole, however, the trend is still positive and it is expected to remain so. Other interesting facts have been revealed. The rates of increase of total electrical consumption in both industrialized countries and the developing countries have been clearly positive, irrespective of any energy crisis and, in magnitude, always greater than just the increase in energy consumption itself. In the developing countries this rate of increase over the past 15 years has been almost 7% per year and 3% per year in the industrialized countries. The latter rates were also of the order of 7% per year until the oil crisis period of the early 1970s. If these trends of increasing electrical consumption on an overall worldwide basis continue as expected, conventional energy resources used to generate electricity, i.e., hydro and fossil fuels, will be rapidly depleted. Moreover, fossil fuels — coal, oil, and natural gas — whose burning now provides almost two-thirds of the world's electrical energy and contribute significantly to the increasing concerns regarding environmental pollution, have a myriad of other more unique uses. Energy resources other than fossil are needed and nuclear systems offer an effective option. Indeed, for the immediate future, pending some breakthroughs in the socalled soft technologies, i.e., in cost-effective photovoltaics, or in the ultimate promise of fusion systems, nuclear fission and fossil fuel (primarily coal) are the only really viable alternatives that can be considered.