Sustainable management of a river basin by integrating an improved fuzzy based hybridized SWOT model and geo-statistical weighted thematic overlay analysis

Abstract Sustainable river basin planning and management is a complex and uncertain phenomenon involving social, economic, environmental and several technical criteria. Despite global advancement, the problems associated sustainability have not been sufficiently addressed, due to mismanaged governance, poorly implemented policies, lack of suitable data and over-exploitation of river resources. Therefore, major rivers basins across the globe need an integrative and comprehensive strategic approach considering the diverse stakeholder’s perspective and conflicting criteria pertaining to sustainable management. The present study develops a decision support framework to assess the sustainability by coupling an improved fuzzy based hybridized strength-weakness-opportunities and threats model (FH-SWOT) with a geostatistical approach. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the model Ganges river basin, India has been taken as a case study. The novelty of the study is to devise six different hybrid mechanisms under FH-SWOT framework to reach best possible strategic alternatives along with nominal, optimistic and pessimistic perspectives of the stakeholders. To enhance the model’s productivity, it is coupled with weighted overlay geo-statistical approach to identify/prioritize the most vulnerable/critical locations, which needs suitable implementation of strategic alternatives derived using FH-SWOT model. The FH-SWOT model developed herein simultaneously delineates strategic alternatives and corresponding priority zones, while addressing the uncertainties related to stakeholder’s conflicts and imprecise data to reach optimal, pessimistic and nominal viewpoints, which leads to development of an innovative and comprehensive decision-support framework for assessing sustainability. The key policies derived from the study involve enforcing regulations on disposal of heavy metals, developing hydropower, adaptation of organic farming, education and participation of stakeholders, regulations on dams and barrages with a score of 0.2453, 0.2205, 0.2088, 0.1898, and 0.1288 respectively. Also, Kanpur- Varanasi stretch has been delineated as very high priority zone followed by regions located along the banks of Ganges. Sensitivity analysis proves that the model is robust and can be used by the environment managers towards sustainable planning and management of any river basin, lakes, wetlands or any major water body of the world.