Application of Markov processes to predict aircraft operational reliability

A generic failure and maintenance scenario model has been identified to predict early in the aircraft design phase the number of times an aircraft will not be able to take-off during a miss ion 15 minutes after the scheduled departure time. This defines the Operational Reliability of the aircraft . The suggested model has then been implemented in Supercab tool provided by Cab Innovation. This tool enables to implement and solve multi-phase Markov processes. Predicted probabilities have then been validated in a sense on operational data provided b y a yearly-observed statistical sample.