Prediction of airport delays based on non linear considerations of airports systems

Due to the high density of air traffic on major routes and around major cities, e.g. in Europe and the US, delays become an omnipresent problem that can no longer be solved during enroute flights. The turnaround of aircraft based on well defined processes becomes more and more important. Hence delay becomes a matter of airport management. A new approach that considers airports as dynamic systems gives the key to predict airport delays in an innovative way and opens the channel to support activities around total airport management. The paper introduces the idea how to apply methodologies of non-linear physics to data of airport processes to investigate the state of airports and characteristic points of bifurcation depending on the boundary conditions of airports. Relevant delay-influencing parameters have been identified and their sensitiveness on the boundary conditions has been analyzed. The knowledge of boundary conditions that result in turbulent or chaotic stages (measured by the Lyapunov Exponent) is essential for future airport management to prevent critical situations and has been investigated in this paper. Based on assumptions of non-linear physics and knowledge of airport dynamic characteristics a method has been developed to predict off-block delays at airports based on boundary conditions. This method has been applied to several US airports.