MODERN GRID PLANNING - A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH FOR LOW VOLTAGE NETWORKS FACING NEW CHALLENGES

In this paper a probabilistic approach for describing, estimating and dimensioning of electrical equipment, such as transformers and low voltage power lines for residential households is compared with the conventionally approach. The new methodology includes residential households, decentralized generating units, electrical storage units and the in the near future expected electric mobility. The performed simulations provide quantiles of probabilistic peak power which are developed by means of simulations considering the distribution functions of different characteristic days (weekday, Saturday, Sunday) and different time periods (winter, summer, transition period) of the measured electrical power consumption from residential households using measured smart meter profiles. A relation between statistical analysis and conventionally coincidence factors is given.