Integrated production planning and order acceptance under uncertainty: A robust optimization approach

The aim of this paper is to formulate a model that integrates production planning and order acceptance decisions while taking into account demand uncertainty and capturing the effects of congestion. Orders/customers are classified into classes based on their marginal revenue and their level of variability in order quantity (demand variance). The proposed integrated model provides the flexibility to decide on the fraction of demand to be satisfied from each customer class, giving the planner the choice of selecting among the highly profitable yet risky orders or less profitable but possibly more stable orders. Furthermore, when the production stage exceeds a critical utilization level, it suffers the consequences of congestion via elongated lead-times which results in backorders and erodes the firm’s revenue. Through order acceptance decisions, the planner can maintain a reasonable level of utilization and hence avoid increasing delays in production lead times. A robust optimization (RO) approach is adapted to model demand uncertainty and non-linear clearing functions characterize the relationship between throughput and workload to reflect the effects of congestion on production lead times. Illustrative simulation and numerical experiments show characteristics of the integrated model, the effects of congestion and variability, and the value of integrating production planning and order acceptance decisions.

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