The future of walking in Europe: a Delphi project to identify expert opinion on future walking scenarios

There is increasing recognition of the importance of walking to the sustainability of cities, set against a continuing decline in everyday walking. This paper reports on a research project, which predicts trends in walking in Europe by 2010 by seeking opinion of experts who are knowledgeable about non-motorised transport. There is a consensus that there will be more walking for leisure and health, but less everyday walking. This will happen despite walking being seen as more important and there being more facilities, infrastructure, information and funding for walking.

[1]  Colin Hunter,et al.  Assessing the environmental impact of tourism development; use of the Delphi technique; Application of the Delphi technique: a reply to Green, Hunter and Moore. , 1990 .

[2]  Luiz Moutinho,et al.  Tourism marketing and management handbook. , 1989 .

[3]  K. Hill,et al.  The methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique , 1975 .

[4]  Great Britain. Office for Standards in Education,et al.  Transport statistics, Great Britain , 1976 .

[5]  Jeffrey L. Johnson,et al.  A ten-year Delphi forecast in the electronics industry , 1976 .

[6]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  EFTE: An interactive Delphi method , 1985 .

[7]  Luiz Moutinho,et al.  Delphi method applied to tourism. , 1989 .

[8]  Joseph Paul Martino,et al.  Technological Forecasting for Decisionmaking , 1975 .

[9]  D. Ng.  A model estimating the demand for leisure services manpower: forecasting with multiple regression, the subjective/objective qualitative forecasting, and the Delphi methodology. , 1984 .

[10]  Les Lumsdon,et al.  Walking, transport and health: do we have the right prescription? , 1999 .

[11]  Brian W. Mar,et al.  The Delphi technique in environmental assessment. I: Implementation and effectiveness , 1985 .

[12]  John F. Preble,et al.  The selection of delphi panels for strategic planning purposes , 1984 .

[13]  David Banister.  Transport and the environment , 1995 .

[14]  M. Bardecki,et al.  Participants' response to the Delphi method: An attitudinal perspective , 1984 .

[15]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications , 1976 .

[16]  David Ley,et al.  The delphi technique in urban forecasting , 1975 .

[17]  Annika Nilsson,et al.  How to enhance WALking and CYcliNG instead of shorter car trips and to make these modes safer. Public. Deliverable D6. Walcyng Contract No: UR-96-SC.099 , 1998 .

[18]  Yeong Wee Yong,et al.  A Delphi Forecast for the Singapore Tourism Industry: Future Scenario and Marketing Implications , 1989 .

[19]  Stephen Potter.  VITAL TRAVEL STATISTICS 1997. A COMPENDIUM OF DATA AND ANALYSIS ABOUT TRANSPORT ACTIVITY IN BRITAIN , 1997 .

[20]  Rodney Tolley,et al.  HARD ROAD: THE PROBLEMS OF WALKING AND CYCLING IN BRITISH CITIES. CHAPTER 1 IN: THE GREENING OF URBAN TRANSPORT. PLANNING FOR WALKING AND CYCLING IN WESTERN CITIES. , 1990 .

[21]  Hansruedi Müller.  Long-haul tourism 2005 - Delphi study , 1998 .