Meteorological Analysis Systems in North-East Spain: Validation of SAFRAN and SPAN

We present an application and validation of the SAFRAN meteorological analysis system for north-east Spain. SAFRAN is also compared to the SPAN analysis system and the meteorological model HIRLAM-HNR, both operational at AEMET. This application of SAFRAN is intended for hydrological studies. This is the first study that shows an application of SAFRAN outside of France and that compares it with SPAN. This is also the first article validating SPAN's rainfall values. Using one year of observational data, the results show that both SAFRAN and SPAN have a similar performance, which is also similar to SAFRAN's performance in France. Thus, SAFRAN and SPAN are both good tools to force land surface models at high resolution in the area of SAFRAN works under the assumption of the existence of climatically homogeneous zones. Two different sets of zones were tested, one based on the AEMET meteorological warning zones and another one based on hydrological catchments. Better results were obtained when using meteor-ological warning zones. However, the difference is small. In north-east Spain, SAFRAN has the same limitations that were previously shown in France: the spatial structure of the fields is not realistic enough and wind speed is underestimated. As expected, both SAFRAN and SPAN work better in flat areas than over areas of steep relief. This can be a problem in hydrological studies, especially for the Ebro river basin, where most of the runoff is generated in the Pyrenees.

[1]  Joan Cuxart,et al.  Long-term verification of HIRLAM and ECMWF forecasts over Southern Europe History and perspectives of Numerical Weather Prediction at AEMET , 2013 .

[2]  C. Albergel,et al.  From near-surface to root-zone soil moisture using an exponential filter: an assessment of the method based on in-situ observations and model simulations , 2008 .

[3]  G. Thirel,et al.  On the Impact of Short-Range Meteorological Forecasts for Ensemble Streamflow Predictions , 2008 .

[4]  J. Thioulouse,et al.  Biogeographical patterns of soil molecular microbial biomass as influenced by soil characteristics and management , 2011 .

[5]  E. Zorita,et al.  An estimate of the effects of climate change on the rainfall of Mediterranean Spain by the late twenty first century , 2003 .

[6]  W. Wagner,et al.  An Intercomparison of ERS-Scat and AMSR-E Soil Moisture Observations with Model Simulations over France , 2009 .

[7]  M. Turco,et al.  Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain , 2011 .

[8]  T. Estrela,et al.  Impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain , 2012 .

[9]  Florence Habets,et al.  Analysis of Near-Surface Atmospheric Variables: Validation of the SAFRAN Analysis over France , 2008 .

[10]  M. C. Llasat,et al.  A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain , 2009 .

[11]  A. K. Tank,et al.  A European daily high‐resolution observational gridded data set of sea level pressure , 2011 .

[12]  Jean-Philippe Vidal,et al.  A 50‐year high‐resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the Safran system , 2010 .

[13]  E. Martin,et al.  Comparison of three downscaling methods in simulating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins , 2010 .

[14]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble , 2012, Climatic Change.

[15]  H. Fowler,et al.  Modeling the impacts of future climate change on water resources for the Gállego river basin (Spain) , 2012 .

[16]  S. Somot,et al.  Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: uncertainty assessment , 2012 .

[17]  H. Blatz.  A comprehensive radiation control program in New York City. , 1960, Radiology.

[18]  Ernesto Rodríguez Camino,et al.  Analysis of surface variables and parameterization of surface processes in HIRLAM. Part I: Approach and verification by parallel runs , 2009 .

[19]  M. C. Llasat,et al.  Floods in Catalonia (NE Spain) since the 14th century. Climatological and meteorological aspects from historical documentary sources and old instrumental records , 2005 .

[20]  A. Sterl,et al.  The ERA‐40 re‐analysis , 2005 .

[21]  J. M. Gutiérrez,et al.  Development and analysis of a 50-year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain ( Spain 02 ) , 2010 .

[22]  Patrick Arnaud,et al.  Flash flood warning at ungauged locations using radar rainfall and antecedent soil moisture estimations. , 2010 .

[23]  M. Llasat,et al.  Flash-floods in Catalonia: the social perception in a context of changing vulnerability , 2008 .

[24]  Pierre Etchevers,et al.  Reanalysis of 44 Yr of Climate in the French Alps (1958-2002): Methodology, Model Validation, Climatology, and Trends for Air Temperature and Precipitation , 2009 .

[25]  Mehrez Zribi,et al.  Analysis of surface and root-zone soil moisture dynamics with ERS scatterometer and the hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU at Grand Morin watershed (France) , 2008 .

[26]  Florence Habets,et al.  Road Surface Condition Forecasting in France , 2009 .

[27]  Jeffrey P. Walker,et al.  An EKF assimilation of AMSR-E soil moisture into the ISBA land surface scheme , 2009 .

[28]  B. Navascués.  ANALYSIS OF 2 meter TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY , 1997 .

[29]  L. Garrote,et al.  Challenges to Manage the Risk of Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Mediterranean , 2007 .

[30]  Céline Lutoff,et al.  HYMEX , a 10-year Multidisciplinary Program on the mediterranean water cycle. , 2014 .

[31]  Serdar Korkmaz,et al.  Application of the coupled model to the Somme river basin , 2009 .

[32]  J. Mahfouf,et al.  The ISBA land surface parameterisation scheme , 1996 .

[33]  Julien Boé,et al.  Projected changes in components of the hydrological cycle in French river basins during the 21st century , 2009 .

[34]  J. Thioulouse,et al.  Turnover of soil bacterial diversity driven by wide-scale environmental heterogeneity , 2013, Nature Communications.

[35]  S. Herrera,et al.  Development and analysis of a 50‐year high‐resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02) , 2012 .

[36]  Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003 , 2011 .

[37]  Dominique Carrer,et al.  Verification of the new ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis over France , 2010 .

[38]  S. Planton,et al.  A Simple Parameterization of Land Surface Processes for Meteorological Models , 1989 .

[39]  L. Gandin.  Objective Analysis of Meteorological Fields , 1963 .

[40]  E. Martin,et al.  An Energy and Mass Model of Snow Cover Suitable for Operational Avalanche Forecasting , 1989, Journal of Glaciology.

[41]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[42]  François Anctil,et al.  Performance and reliability of multimodel hydrological ensemble simulations based on seventeen lumped models and a thousand catchments , 2010 .

[43]  M. Claverie,et al.  Maize and sunflower biomass estimation in southwest France using high spatial and temporal resolution remote sensing data , 2012 .

[44]  S. Vicente‐Serrano,et al.  Recent trends in Iberian streamflows (1945-2005) , 2012 .

[45]  M. C. Llasat,et al.  Flash floods in Catalonia: a recurrent situation , 2009 .

[46]  Jean-Pierre Wigneron,et al.  Modelling LAI at a regional scale with ISBA-A-gs: comparison with satellite-derived LAI over southwestern France , 2009 .

[47]  Multi-model comparison of a major flood in the groundwater-fed basin of the Somme River (France) , 2009 .

[48]  Florence Habets,et al.  Adaptation of a catchment-based land surface model to the hydrogeological setting of the Somme River basin (France) , 2009 .

[49]  Céline Lutoff,et al.  Human exposure to flash floods – Relation between flood parameters and human vulnerability during a storm of September 2002 in Southern France , 2008 .

[50]  Jean-Christophe Calvet,et al.  Use of agricultural statistics to verify the interannual variability in land surface models: a case study over France with ISBA-A-gs , 2011 .

[51]  Christian Gagné,et al.  Simplifying a hydrological ensemble prediction system with a backward greedy selection of members – Part 1: Optimization criteria , 2011 .

[52]  Etienne Leblois,et al.  The SAFRAN‐ISBA‐MODCOU hydrometeorological model applied over France , 2008 .

[53]  P. Jones,et al.  A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006 , 2008 .

[54]  E. Martin,et al.  Comparison of past and future Mediterranean high and low extremes of precipitation and river flow projected using different statistical downscaling methods , 2011 .

[55]  Stefan Gollvik,et al.  Mesan, an operational mesoscale analysis system , 2000 .

[56]  Alina Barbu,et al.  The SURFEXv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of earth surface variables and fluxes , 2012 .

[57]  B. Ritter,et al.  A comprehensive radiation scheme for numerical weather prediction models with potential applications in climate simulations , 1992 .

[58]  H. Fowler,et al.  Future climate scenarios and rainfall--runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain). , 2007, Environmental pollution.

[59]  E. Martin,et al.  A computer-based system simulating snowpack structures as a tool for regional avalanche forecasting , 1999, Journal of Glaciology.

[60]  J. Jacobeit,et al.  Circulation dynamics of Mediterranean precipitation variability 1948–98 , 2003 .

[61]  M. Turco,et al.  Testing instrumental and downscaled reanalysis time series for temperature trends in NE of Spain in the last century , 2014, Regional Environmental Change.

[62]  B. Navascués,et al.  Optimum interpolation new snow depth analysis in HIRLAM , 2009 .

[63]  Jean-Philippe Vidal,et al.  Hydrological seasonal forecast over France: feasibility and prospects , 2010 .

[64]  Yoav Yair,et al.  High-impact floods and flash floods in Mediterranean countries: the FLASH preliminary database , 2010 .

[65]  Eric Sauquet,et al.  Comparison of catchment grouping methods for flow duration curve estimation at ungauged sites in France , 2011 .

[67]  D. Arrouays,et al.  Determinants of the distribution of nitrogen-cycling microbial communities at the landscape scale , 2010, The ISME Journal.

[68]  E. Martin,et al.  Influence of spatial discretization, underground water storage and glacier melt on a physically-based hydrological model of the Upper Durance River basin , 2011 .

[69]  E. Martin,et al.  A meteorological estimation of relevant parameters for snow models , 1993 .

[70]  Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano,et al.  Trends in daily precipitation on the northeastern Iberian Peninsula, 1955–2006 , 2010 .

[71]  Wolfgang Wagner,et al.  Assimilation of ASCAT near-surface soil moisture into the SIM hydrological model over France , 2011 .