What Makes Free/Libre Open Source Software (FLOSS) Projects Successful? An Agent-Based Model of FLOSS Projects

The last few years have seen a rapid increase in the number of Free/Libre Open Source Software (FLOSS) projects. Some of these projects, such as Linux and the Apache web server, have become phenomenally successful. However, for every successful FLOSS project there are dozens of FLOSS projects which never succeed. These projects fail to attract developers and/or consumers and, as a result, never get off the ground. The aim of this research is to better understand why some FLOSS projects flourish while others wither and die. This article presents a simple agent-based model that is calibrated on key patterns of data from SourceForge, the largest online site hosting open source projects. The calibrated model provides insight into the conditions necessary for FLOSS success and might be used for scenario analysis of future developments of FLOSS.

[1]  Christopher Podmore.  Information economics and policy: In the United States edited by Michael Rubin Libraries Unlimited, Littleton, CO 1983, 340 pp , 1984 .

[2]  E. Ostrom,et al.  Rules, Games, and Common-Pool Resources , 1994 .

[3]  G. Madey,et al.  Modeling and Simulation of the Open Source Software Community , 2005 .

[4]  Ioannis Stamelos,et al.  Emerging Free and Open Source Software Practices , 2007 .

[5]  Kathleen M. Carley,et al.  A Social Network Approach to Free/Open Source Software Simulation , 2005 .

[6]  B. Rosen,et al.  Effects of opportunity to communicate and visibility of individual decisions on behavior in the common interest. , 1974 .

[7]  K. Amant,et al.  Handbook of Research on Open Source Software: Technological, Economic, and Social Perspectives , 2007 .

[8]  G. Brent Hall,et al.  Using Open Source Software Components to Implement a Modular Web 2.0 Design for Map-Based Discussions , 2010, Int. J. Open Source Softw. Process..

[9]  ArciszewskiTomasz,et al.  Evolutionary computation and structural design , 2005 .

[10]  B. Kogut,et al.  Open-source Software Development and Distributed Innovation , 2001 .

[11]  Stefan Koch,et al.  Free / open source software development , 2004 .

[12]  Stefan Koch,et al.  Exploring the effects of SourceForge.net coordination and communication tools on the efficiency of open source projects using data envelopment analysis , 2009, Empirical Software Engineering.

[13]  Krzysztof Zielinski,et al.  Software Engineering: Evolution and Emerging Technologies , 2005, Software Engineering: Evolution and Emerging Technologies.

[14]  Jean-Michel Dalle,et al.  SimCode: Agent-based Simulation Modelling of Open-Source Software Development , 2005 .

[15]  Likoebe M. Maruping,et al.  Impacts of License Choice and Organizational Sponsorship on User Interest and Development Activity in Open Source Software Projects , 2006, Inf. Syst. Res..

[16]  Likoebe M. Maruping,et al.  A Preliminary Analysis of the Influences of Licensing and Organizational Sponsorship on Success in Open Source Projects , 2005, Proceedings of the 38th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[17]  C. O'Donnell.  The Labor Politics of Scratching an Itch , 2007 .

[18]  Ioannis Stamelos,et al.  Dynamical Simulation Models of the Open Source Development Process , 2005 .

[19]  Kevin Crowston,et al.  Information systems success in free and open source software development: theory and measures , 2006, Softw. Process. Improv. Pract..

[20]  Sandeep Krishnamurthy,et al.  Cave or Community? An Empirical Examination of 100 Mature Open Source Projects , 2002, First Monday.

[21]  H. Tajfel.  Human Groups and Social Categories: Studies in Social Psychology , 1981 .

[22]  Jürgen Bitzer,et al.  Bug-fixing and code-writing: The private provision of open source software , 2005, Inf. Econ. Policy.

[23]  Francesco Rentocchini,et al.  An Analysis of the Adoption of Open Source Software by Local Public Administrations: Evidence from the Emilia-Romagna Region of Italy , 2010, Int. J. Open Source Softw. Process..

[24]  Kevin Crowston,et al.  Open source software projects as virtual organisations: competency rallying for software development , 2002, IEE Proc. Softw..

[25]  Melvin Guyer,et al.  Group Size and Others' Strategy in an N-Person Game , 1977 .

[26]  Walt Scacchi,et al.  Understanding the Development of Free E-Commerce/E-Business Software: A Resource-Based View1 , 2009 .

[27]  P. Kidwell,et al.  The mythical man-month: Essays on software engineering , 1996, IEEE Annals of the History of Computing.

[28]  R. Acevedo,et al.  Research report , 1967, Revista odontologica de Puerto Rico.

[29]  Gregory R. Madey,et al.  Modeling the Free/Open Source Software Community: A Quantitative Investigation , 2008 .

[30]  W. Hamilton,et al.  The evolution of cooperation. , 1984, Science.

[31]  Martin Michlmayr,et al.  Software Process Maturity and the Success of Free Software Projects , 2005, Software Engineering: Evolution and Emerging Technologies.

[32]  E. Katsamakas,et al.  Why Most Open Source Development Projects Do Not Succeed? , 2007, First International Workshop on Emerging Trends in FLOSS Research and Development (FLOSS'07: ICSE Workshops 2007).

[33]  Maria Alessandra Rossi.  Decoding the "Free/Open Source (F/OSS) Software Puzzle"a survey of theoretical and empirical contributions , 2004 .

[34]  Anna Sidorova,et al.  SURVIVAL OF OPEN-SOURCE PROJECTS: A POPULATION ECOLOGY PERSPECTIVE , 2003 .

[35]  Weiss Dawid,et al.  Quantitative analysis of open source projects on SourceForge , 2005 .

[36]  Tomasz Arciszewski,et al.  Evolutionary computation and structural design: A survey of the state-of-the-art , 2005 .

[37]  R. English,et al.  Identifying Success and Tragedy of FLOSS Commons: A Preliminary Classification of Sourceforge.net Projects , 2007, First International Workshop on Emerging Trends in FLOSS Research and Development (FLOSS'07: ICSE Workshops 2007).