Medical decision making: probabilistic medical reasoning

Because clinical data are imperfect and outcomes of treatment are uncertain, health professionals often are faced with difficult choices. In this chapter, we introduce probabilistic medical reasoning, an approach that can help healthcare providers to deal with the uncertainty inherent in many medical decisions. Medical decisions are made by a variety of methods; our approach is neither necessary nor appropriate for all decisions. Throughout the chapter, we provide simple clinical examples that illustrate a broad range of problems for which probabilistic medical reasoning does provide valuable insight.