FUNDAMENTALS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY AND ITS APPLICATIONS TO RELIABILITY MODELING

The Dempster-Shafter Theory is well-known for its usefulness to express uncertain judgments of experts. This contribution shows how to apply the calculus to safety and reliability modeling, especially to expert judgment; Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis; Event Tree Analysis, Fault Tree Analysis, and Reliability Centered Maintenance. Including a tutorial introduction to the Dempster-Shafer Theory, the differences between the Probability and the Dempster-Shafer Theory are discussed widely.