The potential for application of individual-based simulation models for assessing the effects of global change

The environmental changes that could result from human activities are sufficiently large to be characterized as an "uncontrolled global experiment" (7). The obvious lack of experimental control when complex changes are global in scale, along with a myriad of other logistic difficulties, confound the evaluation of global consequences. This has created a need for reasoned extrapolations from experimental and observational data and the application of computer models to predict the ecological response of the terrestrial surface to changes in the environment. The first model-based evaluations of global changes for terrestrial vegetation focused on identifying which phenomena need to be considered and at what temporal and spatial scales (88, 33). Then the emphasis on plant physiology and biophysics (22, 27, 41, 71, 72, 118) versus the emphasis on individualplant natural history and demography (34, 43, 44, 55, 56, 76, 121) formed

[1]  Göran I. Ågren,et al.  Dynamics of Carbon and Nitrogen in the Organic Matter of the Soil: A Generic Theory , 1991, The American Naturalist.

[2]  E. Rastetter.  A spatially explicit model of vegetation-habitat interactions on barrier Islands , 1991 .

[3]  Andrew D. Moore,et al.  An individualistic model of vegetation stand dynamics. , 1990 .

[4]  Jean Clobert,et al.  Tree community dynamics in a humid savanna of the Côte-d'Ivoire: modelling the effects of fire and competition with grass and neighbours. , 1990 .

[5]  B. Huntley.  Studying global change: The contribution of Quaternary palynology , 1990 .

[6]  G. Bonan,et al.  Using a Forest Stand Simulation Model to Examine the Ecological and Climatic Significance of the Late-Quaternary Pine-Spruce Pollen Zone in Eastern Virginia, U.S.A. , 1990, Quaternary Research.

[7]  Herman H. Shugart,et al.  The sensitivity of some high-latitude boreal forests to climatic parameters , 1990 .

[8]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation , 1990, Nature.

[9]  S. Running,et al.  Mapping Regional Forest Evapotranspiration And Photosynthesis By Coupling Satellite Data With Ecosystem Simulation , 1989, 10th Annual International Symposium on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[10]  Donald L. DeAngelis,et al.  The global carbon cycle. , 1990 .

[11]  William K. Lauenroth,et al.  A gap dynamics simulation model of succession in a semiarid grassland , 1990 .

[12]  V. Dale,et al.  Potential effects of climate change on stand development in the Pacific Northwest , 1989 .

[13]  M. B. Davis,et al.  Lags in vegetation response to greenhouse warming , 1989 .

[14]  I. Prentice.  Developing a Global Vegetation Dynamics Model: Results of an IIASA Summer Workshop , 1989 .

[15]  L. Roberts.  How Fast Can Trees Migrate?: If the climate models are correct, greenhouse warming will spell doom for many forests across the United States. , 1989, Science.

[16]  Herman H. Shugart,et al.  Environmental Factors and Ecological Processes in Boreal Forests , 1989 .

[17]  G. Bonan,et al.  Niche theory and community organization , 1988 .

[18]  D. DeAngelis,et al.  New Computer Models Unify Ecological TheoryComputer simulations show that many ecological patterns can be explained by interactions among individual organisms , 1988 .

[19]  R. L. Develice.  Test of a forest dynamics simulator in New Zealand , 1988 .

[20]  H. Shugart.  Dynamic Ecosystem Consequences of Tree Birth and Death Patterns , 1987 .

[21]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Plant Succession: Life History and Competition , 1987, The American Naturalist.

[22]  R. Busing,et al.  Application of a spruce-fir forest canopy gap model , 1987 .

[23]  H. Koop,et al.  Forest dynamics and regeneration mosaic shifts in unexploited beech (Fagus sylvatica) stands at Fontainebleau (France) , 1987 .

[24]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Plant Responses to Multiple Environmental FactorsPhysiological ecology provides tools for studying how interacting environmental resources control plant growth , 1987 .

[25]  F. Woodward.  Climate and plant distribution , 1987 .

[26]  Thomas J. Givnish,et al.  On the economy of plant form and function. , 1988 .

[27]  A. Solomon.  Comparison of taxon calibrations, modern analogue techniques, and forest-stand simulation models for the quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation: A critique† , 1986 .

[28]  W. Post,et al.  Influence of climate, soil moisture, and succession on forest carbon and nitrogen cycles , 1986 .

[29]  F. Stuart Chapin,et al.  The Nature of Nutrient Limitation in Plant Communities , 1986, The American Naturalist.

[30]  I. R. Cowan.  Economics of carbon fixation in higher plants , 1986 .

[31]  T. A. Waldrop,et al.  FORCAT: asingle tree model of stand development following clearcutting on the Cumberland Plateau , 1986 .

[32]  W. Post,et al.  Global patterns of soil nitrogen storage , 1985, Nature.

[33]  P. Sharpe,et al.  A physiologically based continuous-time Markov approach to plant growth modelling in semi-arid woodlands , 1985 .

[34]  Wiley M. Kitchens,et al.  MODELLING THE IMPACTS OF A RIVER DIVERSION ON BOTTOMLAND FOREST COMMUNITIES IN THE SANTEE RIVER FLOODPLAIN, SOUTH CAROLINA , 1985 .

[35]  N. Brokaw.  Gap-phase regeneration in a tropical forest. , 1985 .

[36]  H. Delcourt,et al.  Comparison of taxon calibrations, modern analogue techniques, and forest-stand simulation models for the quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation , 1985 .

[37]  Daniel B. Botkin,et al.  Sensitivity of Cool-Temperate Forests and their Fossil Pollen Record to Rapid Temperature Change , 1985, Quaternary Research.

[38]  B. Walker,et al.  Interactions of woody and herbaceous vegetation in a southern African Savanna , 1985 .

[39]  N. Brokaw,et al.  Chapter 4 – Treefalls, Regrowth, and Community Structure in Tropical Forests , 1985 .

[40]  T. Webb,,et al.  Computer-Aided Reconstruction of Late-Quaternary Landscape Dynamics , 1985 .

[41]  M. C. Axelrod,et al.  A PROCESS MODEL OF FIRE ECOLOGY AND SUCCESSION IN A MIXED-CONIFER FOREST' , 1984 .

[42]  H. Shugart,et al.  Modelling succession of Eastern Canadian mixedwood forest , 1984 .

[43]  V. Dale,et al.  CLIMACS: a computer model of forest stand development for western Oregon and Washington. , 1984 .

[44]  H. Shugart.  A Theory of Forest Dynamics , 1984 .

[45]  Elgene O. Box,et al.  Tasks for Vegetation Science I: Macroclimate and Plant Forms: An Introduction to Predictive Modeling in Phytogeography , 2011 .

[46]  R. McMurtrie,et al.  A Model of Competition between Trees and Grass for Radiation, Water and Nutrients , 1983 .

[47]  A. M. Solomon,et al.  Integrating forest-stand simulations with paleoecological records to examine long-term forest dynamics , 1983 .

[48]  Richard H. Waring,et al.  Estimating Forest Growth and Efficiency in Relation to Canopy Leaf Area , 1983 .

[49]  Dr. Leendert van der Pijl.  Principles of Dispersal in Higher Plants , 1983, Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

[50]  Jerry M. Melillo,et al.  Nitrogen immobilization in decaying hardwood leaf litter as a function of initial nitrogen and lignin content , 1982 .

[51]  Whitmore Tc.  On pattern and process in forests. , 1982 .

[52]  C. T. Dyrness.  Control of depth to permafrost and soil temperature by the forest floor in black spruce/feathermoss communities. , 1982 .

[53]  H. Delcourt,et al.  Dynamic plant ecology: the spectrum of vegetational change in space and time , 1982 .

[54]  D. C. West,et al.  Simulating the Role of Climate Change and Species Immigration in Forest Succession , 1981 .

[55]  Herman H. Shugart,et al.  A computer model of succession and fire response of the high‐altitude Eucalyptus forest of the Brindabella Range, Australian Capital Territory , 1981 .

[56]  Thomas W. Doyle,et al.  The Role of Disturbance in the Gap Dynamics of a Montane Rain Forest: An Application of a Tropical Forest Succession Model , 1981 .

[57]  D. C. West,et al.  Testing a Simulation Model for Reconstruction of Prehistoric Forest-Stand Dynamics , 1980, Quaternary Research.

[58]  H. Shugart,et al.  The development of a succession model for subtropical rain forest and its application to assess the effects of timber harvest at Wiangaree State Forest, New South Wales. , 1980 .

[59]  J. Denslow.  Gap Partitioning among Tropical Rainforest Trees , 1980 .

[60]  D. C. West,et al.  Forest Succession Models , 1980 .

[61]  J. P. Grime,et al.  Plant Strategies and Vegetation Processes. , 1980 .

[62]  D. F. Grigal,et al.  Vegetation–soil relationships along a spruce forest transect in interior Alaska , 1979 .

[63]  Richard L. Phipps,et al.  Simulation of wetlands forest vegetation dynamics , 1979 .

[64]  Harold A. Mooney,et al.  Environmental and Evolutionary Constraints on the Photosynthetic Characteristics of Higher Plants , 1979 .

[65]  T. Givnish.  On the Adaptive Significance of Leaf Form , 1979 .

[66]  Daniel B. Botkin,et al.  Predicting the effects of different harvesting regimes on forest floor dynamics in northern hardwoods , 1978 .

[67]  V. Meentemeyer,et al.  Macroclimate and Lignin Control of Litter Decomposition Rates , 1978 .

[68]  J. P. Grime,et al.  Evidence for the Existence of Three Primary Strategies in Plants and Its Relevance to Ecological and Evolutionary Theory , 1977, The American Naturalist.

[69]  H. E. Goeller,et al.  Carbon Dioxide and Climate: The Uncontrolled Experiment , 1977 .

[70]  J. M. Hett,et al.  Forest Succession Models: A Rationale and Methodology for Modeling Forest Succession over Large Regions , 1973 .

[71]  J. R. Wallis,et al.  Some ecological consequences of a computer model of forest growth , 1972 .

[72]  I. Bella,et al.  A New Competition Model for Individual Trees , 1971 .

[73]  Light in Plant Stands with Horizontal Foliage , 1971 .

[74]  T. Kozlowski.  Growth and development of trees. Volume II. Cambial growth, root growth, and reproduction growth. , 1971 .

[75]  T. Kozlowski.  Growth and Development of Trees , 1971 .

[76]  J. Y. H. Lin.  Growing space index and stand simulation of young Western Hemlock in Oregon. , 1970 .

[77]  I. R. Cowan.  The Interception and Absorption of Radiation in Plant Stands , 1968 .

[78]  D. Challinor.  Alteration of Surface Soil Characteristics by Four Tree Species , 1968 .

[79]  L. Holdridge.  Life zone ecology. , 1967 .

[80]  Yam Lee.  Stand models for lodgepole pine and limits to their application , 1967 .

[81]  J. D. Helvey,et al.  Canopy and litter interception of rainfall by hardwoods of eastern United States , 1965 .

[82]  Margaret C. Anderson.  LIGHT RELATIONS OF TERRESTRIAL PLANT COMMUNITIES AND THEIR MEASUREMENT , 1964 .

[83]  R. M. Newnham.  The development of a stand model for Douglas fir , 1964 .

[84]  P. Zinke,et al.  The Pattern of Influence of Individual Forest Trees on Soil Properties , 1962 .

[85]  W. Stewart,et al.  Moisture and pH Studies of the Soil Under Forest Trees , 1934 .