CAReFUL - Car Fleet Renewal as a Key Role for Atmospheric Emission Reduction

Climate change and air quality in urban areas are major environmental burdens that implied severe restrictive and challenging European Union (EU) policies to the transport sector, and more specifically to the car industry through the EURO (Association of European Operational Research Societies) regulation and voluntary agreements for carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction. As a prime contributor to atmospheric emissions, much attention is paid to a car’s technological aspects, mainly emissions and energy consumption. Although the problems aren’t solved, the situation is improving. In many respects the question of accelerating fleet renewal and technology deployment is now dominant. It is commonly accepted that technology can solve road transportation environmental problems, but there is no precise knowledge on when and how this might happen. The goal of this project is to develop a model for transport and environmental policy assessment. The model aims to simulate the effects of policies on the technological upgrade of car fleet, especially through the diffusion of more efficient vehicles. The theoretical ground of the present proposal is based on modeling research of car stock evolution, car ownership, and energy and air emission factors. The present research proposal brings a model (CAReFUL) that integrates methodologies for the estimation of the evolution of car fleet (CARFLEE), emissions (CAREM) and energy consumption (CAREN) by cars. The CARFLEE model was calibrated based on national statistical data series for the Portuguese car fleet and on a survey covering approximately 3700 households. Based on the consequent stated preferences database, a state of the art Random Utility Model is integrated in the CARFLEE sub model in order to analyze different transport policies that may induce behaviors on the acquisition of new vehicles and on the deployment of cleaner technologies. The CARFLEE sub-model also includes an estimate of vehicle’s survival and mileage curves. Together with the estimation of private cars mobility patterns, based on the survey results, a reasonable simulation of the national car fleet evolution is proposed.