Glacier estimate is on thin ice

Hundreds of millions of people rely on water from the Himalayas' mighty glaciers, which experts agree are shrinking as a result of rising global temperatures. But a claim that all of the ice could be gone by 2035 — enshrined in the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — has come under fire from, among others, a coordinating lead author of the IPCC chapter that uses the questionable figure. The dispute highlights the fact that the panel sometimes relies on 'grey' or unrefereed literature. IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri says that the panel is investigating whether its report needs to be modified — which, if it were to happen, would be highly unusual. At issue is a statement in the portion of the 2007 IPCC report 1 compiled by its working group on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. It says that " glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate ". The source cited was a 2005 overview from the conservation group WWF's Nepal Program 2 , which, in turn, refers to non-refereed findings by glaciologist Syed Iqbal Hasnain, a senior fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi. Hasnain recently told the magazine New Scientist that his initial conclusions, contained in a 1999 report by the Working Group on Hima-layan Glaciology of the International Commission on Snow and Ice, were " speculative ". Nature could not reach him for comment. Satellite observations and in situ measurements do suggest that many of the more than 45,000 glaciers in the Himalayan and Tibetan region are losing mass. But given the observed rate of decline so far, many experts doubt that even small glaciers will melt completely before the end of the century. " The IPCC's statement is wrong and misleading, " says Andreas Schild, director-general of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development in Kathmandu, Nepal. " It was pretty clear early on that this was an error awaiting correction, " adds Michael Zemp, a glaciologist with the World Glacier Monitoring Service in Zurich, Switzerland. The loudest charges, however, have come from Murari Lal, director of the Climate, Energy and Sustainable Development Analysis Centre in Ghaziabad, who served as …