Simulations and Data Analysis for Air Force Optical Turbulence Forecasting Applications

Abstract : We completed a series of Direct-Numerical and Large-Eddy Simulations (DNS and LES) of wind-shear instability and gravity wave breaking and associated analysis to characterize atmospheric turbulence and its optical impacts. We also analyzed hundreds of rawinsonde profiles to determine the parameters associated with turbulence layers observed in the troposphere and stratosphere. Finally, we developed a Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (BHM) framework for combining the simulation and observational results so that atmospheric turbulence and optical turbulence atmospheric decision aids can be developed and improved. These results can also be used to develop subgrid-scale turbulence and optical turbulence parameterizations for operational mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction models, e.g., the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF).