SUBAREA LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS

A novel method in which the system dynamics is employed to subarea load forecasting is put forward and it is applied to the planning of Shantou power network. On the basis of analyzing the character of subarea load forecasting, a general model is established. Analyzing the data of special situation and revising the general model, a model for special situation is obtained, and according to the results of subarea load forecastings the distribution factors are determined, then the gross forecast amount is distributed to every subarea. Simulation results show that the method based on system dynamics is effective in spatial load forecasting.