Remaining Questions: Conclusions and Queries

This chapter attempts to characterize the current “equilibrium” state of thinking with respect to probability and statistics for systems-based problems. This chapter looks at questions still to be addressed: What are the roles of experts and the enormous amount of drill and other convergent approaches in education and training, including the presupposition of “universals” assumed pedagogically? How does this education and training provide a world view that assists in “bridging the gap” between finite samples and infinite populations—even though the bridges are corrigible? How does one deal with such “deterministic” subjects as chaos theory when unknown initial conditions provide room for developing probabilistic models? Does Taleb’s contention of the incomputability of Black Swans result from the “wobble” inherent in extreme value distributions, or can they be and have they been successfully applied with qualifications? How does one use nonlinear reasoning to understand differently the so-called “fallacy of affirming the consequent” when so many theories are praised for their successes? This chapter also asks how competition can be encouraged and what decision procedures work best with robust simulation outcomes. This chapter specifically addresses how many of the concepts covered in this book including robust simulation, instabilities in extreme value distributions, and linear reasoning upset a very long-standing Western tradition of believing that there is but a unique solution, a singular truth to be achieved.