An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth

A range of monthly series are currently available giving indications of short-term movements in output in the United Kingdom. As the only available information, these indicators are routinely exploited in various ways although they only provide an incomplete picture of gross domestic product (GDP). The main aim of this paper is to suggest a formal and coherent procedure for grossing these monthly data up to represent the whole of GDP. Although the resultant estimates of GDP would be worse than those obtained by direct measurement, they should be more satisfactory than simply making an informal inference from whatever monthly data are available. Our examination of the efficacy of the method for estimation of the state of economic activity indicates a rather satisfactory outcome.

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