Decreasing Cumulative Incidence of End-Stage Renal Disease in Young Patients With Type 1 Diabetes in Sweden: A 38-Year Prospective Nationwide Study

OBJECTIVE Diabetic nephropathy is a serious complication of type 1 diabetes. Recent studies indicate that end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence has decreased or that the onset of ESRD has been postponed; therefore, we wanted to analyze the incidence and time trends of ESRD in Sweden. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In this study, patients with duration of type 1 diabetes >14 years and age at onset of diabetes 0–34 years were included. Three national diabetes registers were used: the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register, the Diabetes Incidence Study in Sweden, and the National Diabetes Register. The Swedish Renal Registry, a national register on renal replacement therapy, was used to identify patients who developed ESRD. RESULTS We found that the cumulative incidence of ESRD in Sweden was low after up to 38 years of diabetes duration (5.6%). The incidence of ESRD was lower in patients with type 1 diabetes onset in 1991–2001 compared with onset in 1977–1984 and 1985–1990, independent of diabetes duration. CONCLUSIONS The risk of developing ESRD in Sweden in this population is still low and also seems to decrease with time.

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