Applications of probabilistic analysis in mine ground control

Conventional methods designate a factor of safety, a deterministic number, to indicate the stability of a mine excavation. However, this deterministic description of excavation stability is frequently insufficient or inaccurate and, sometimes, misleading. Employing the probabilistic analysis to determine the likelihood of mine excavation failures will lead to a better understanding of ground control problems and result in more rigorous designs of the excavations. Based on the theory of probability, two approaches are taken in this study for the probabilistic analysis of excavation stability. The first one utilizes direct integrations for the estimation of failure probabilities of mine excavations. Due to the complexity of the integration, this approach can only be applied to solve relatively simple problems. In order to overcome the limitation of the direct integration method, the second approach employs the first-order second-moment approximation of the failure probabilities for more complex ground control problems. The probabilistic analysis offers a deeper insight into the uncertainty associated with the stability of mine excavations. The study indicates that the distributions of parameter values play a significant role in the mine excavation stability, which can not be disclosed by the conventional methods of stability analysis. Greater dispersiveness of the parameter values willmore » lead to a different probability of failure, although the factor of safety estimated by conventional methods stays the same if the mean values of the parameters are constant. By taking consideration of the probabilistic distributions of the parameters, the probability model can provide more reliable designs of mine excavations.« less