Probability-based codified design for earthquakes

Abstract Current trends in code development in North America and Western Europe are toward the implementation of probability-based limit states design methods. Structural design of buildings and other facilities to withstand the effects of strong earthquake ground motion requires special considerations that are not normally a part of design for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design. The role of structural reliability methods in providing an improved basis for design provisions that are suitable for code implementation is evaluated, and the treatment of uncertainty in code safety checking is described. Difficulties experienced in implementing structural reliability principles in the first-generation probability-based limit states codes are summarized. Prospects for improving current earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are assessed.

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