Development of post-evaluation model for future and emerging technology item reflecting environmental changes

Abstract This study suggests a post-evaluation model for future and emerging technologies identified by previous foresight activities to determine whether their potential has been maintained, extended, or minimized due to rapid technological and social changes in the research and development environment occurring after the technology item was selected. Moreover, the proposed model is based on specialist insight, and can measure whether the selected technology is still promising and socially and technically feasible at the current time domestically and worldwide based on a technology growth curve. The results of the case study suggest which technology items have been implemented or unimplemented due to particular accelerators or obstacles, which items are still promising, and the technology level of the items. The proposed model focuses on the technology items themselves, whereas previous evaluation activities have focused only on the process and impacts of foresight projects. Moreover, this post-evaluation model can be applied to various emerging technology items that are continuously selected and reported around the world, allowing for the monitoring of changes in the brightness and realization status of previously selected items. Thus, the model can provide feedback for the future selection process to improve the reliability of emerging technology selections and suggest the information for decision-making with related to a particular emerging technology item.