Dynamical properties of Geostationary Transfer Orbits over long time scales: consequences for mission analysis and lifetime estimation

Space debris mitigation is one objective of the Fre nch Space Operations Act, in line with IADC (Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) recommendations, through the removal of non-operational objects from populated regions. Long term orbit propagation techniques are required to check the compliance of a chosen disposal orbit against the law. This paper deals with the particular dynamical properties of Geostationary Transfer Orbits. Because of the high eccentricity of these orbits, c omplex phenomena may occur such as coupling between Earth and Sun perturbations, making lifetime estimation highly sensitive to initial conditions or computation parameters. Th is sensitivity can be handled by the processing of statistical lifetimes results, as sho wn in this paper. Numerous propagation cases have been processed and are confronted with theoretical analysis. The paper discusses the possibility of properly estimating the lifetime of objects in Geostationary Transfer Orbit and presents the current work on the good practices that will be associated with the French Space Act.