Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years

[1]  Lyle Brenner,et al.  Perspectives on Probability Judgment Calibration , 2008 .

[2]  Paul J. H. Schoemaker,et al.  Forecasting and Scenario Planning: The Challenges of Uncertainty and Complexity , 2008 .

[3]  Ross L. Watts,et al.  Positive Accounting Theory: A Ten Year Perspective , 2006 .

[4]  Patric Andersson,et al.  Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts☆ , 2005 .

[5]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  Forecasting support systems for the incorporation of event information: An empirical investigation , 2005 .

[6]  Robert Simmons,et al.  Odds setters as forecasters: the case of English football , 2005 .

[7]  Mary E. Thomson,et al.  Performance evaluation of judgemental directional exchange rate predictions B , 2005 .

[8]  Paul Goodwin,et al.  Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions of asymmetric loss , 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[9]  R. Buehler,et al.  Collaborative planning and prediction: Does group discussion affect optimistic biases in time estimation? , 2005 .

[10]  Derek J. Koehler,et al.  Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment ☆ , 2005 .

[11]  Senyo Tse,et al.  Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting , 2005 .

[12]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  Judgmental forecasting in the presence of loss functions , 2005 .

[13]  Kai H. Lim,et al.  The impact of presentation media on decision making: does multimedia improve the effectiveness of feedback? , 2005, Inf. Manag..

[14]  Robert Fildes,et al.  On the accuracy of judgmental interventions on forecasting support systems , 2005 .

[15]  Ilan Yaniv,et al.  Receiving Other People's Advice: Influence and Benefit , 2004 .

[16]  Narasimhan Jegadeesh,et al.  The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions , 2004 .

[17]  Mary E. Thomson,et al.  The influence of the forecast horizon on judgemental probability forecasts of exchange rate movements , 2004 .

[18]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Effects of judges' forecasting on their later combination of forecasts for the same outcomes , 2004 .

[19]  Paul Goodwin,et al.  Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting , 2004, Decis. Support Syst..

[20]  Magne Jørgensen,et al.  Better sure than safe? Over-confidence in judgement based software development effort prediction intervals , 2004, J. Syst. Softw..

[21]  Fergus Bolger,et al.  Provider-user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats , 2004 .

[22]  Michael P. Clements,et al.  A companion to economic forecasting , 2004 .

[23]  Eric R. Stone,et al.  Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: evidence for a confidence heuristic , 2004 .

[24]  D. Önkal The Effects of Feedback on Judgmental Interval Predictions , 2004 .

[25]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making , 2004 .

[26]  Nada R. Sanders,et al.  The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice , 2003 .

[27]  Joseph P. Martino,et al.  A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting , 2003 .

[28]  M. O'Connor,et al.  The interaction of incentives and information disclosure: the case of confidence interval information , 2003 .

[29]  Dilek Önkal,et al.  Professional vs Amateur Judgment Accuracy: The Case of Foreign Exchange Rates , 2003 .

[30]  Michael P. Clements,et al.  Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data , 2003 .

[31]  Dilek Önkal-Atay,et al.  The influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency , 2003 .

[32]  P. Windschitl,et al.  The influence of reasons on interpretations of probability forecasts , 2003 .

[33]  Magne Jørgensen,et al.  An effort prediction interval approach based on the empirical distribution of previous estimation accuracy , 2003, Inf. Softw. Technol..

[34]  R. Fildes,et al.  The State of Macroeconomic Forecasting , 2002 .

[35]  Robert Fildes,et al.  Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy , 2002 .

[36]  Kenneth R. Mylne,et al.  Decision‐making from probability forecasts based on forecast value , 2002 .

[37]  Kenneth D. Lawrence Advances in Business and Management Forecasting , 2002 .

[38]  P. Windschitl,et al.  Context and the interpretation of likelihood information: the role of intergroup comparisons on perceived vulnerability. , 2002, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[39]  B. Poland,et al.  Combining drug-disease and economic modelling to inform drug development decisions. , 2001, Drug discovery today.

[40]  A. Belianin,et al.  Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers , 2001 .

[41]  M. O'Connor,et al.  The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting , 2001 .

[42]  Roman Krzysztofowicz,et al.  The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology , 2001 .

[43]  M. D. Beneish,et al.  Earnings Management: A Perspective , 2001 .

[44]  Chris Chatfield,et al.  Prediction Intervals for Time-Series Forecasting , 2001 .

[45]  Hal R. Arkes,et al.  Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting , 2001 .

[46]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Principles of forecasting , 2001 .

[47]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Principles of forecasting : a handbook for researchers and practitioners , 2001 .

[48]  Thomas R. Stewart,et al.  Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts , 2001 .

[49]  Yaniv,et al.  Advice Taking in Decision Making: Egocentric Discounting and Reputation Formation. , 2000, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[50]  Stone,et al.  Training to Improve Calibration and Discrimination: The Effects of Performance and Environmental Feedback. , 2000, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[51]  Wibecke Brun,et al.  Ambiguous probabilities: when doesp=0.3 reflect a possibility, and when does it express a doubt? , 2000 .

[52]  Kenneth F. Wallis,et al.  Density Forecasting: A Survey , 2000 .

[53]  Michael Lawrence,et al.  A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes , 2000, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[54]  Paul Goodwin,et al.  Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods , 2000 .

[55]  Fischer,et al.  Using Advice and Assessing Its Quality. , 2000, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[56]  P. Goodwin Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment , 2000 .

[57]  Derek W. Bunn,et al.  Review of guidelines for the use of combined forecasts , 2000, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[58]  K. Teigen,et al.  The Directionality of Verbal Probability Expressions: Effects on Decisions, Predictions, and Probabilistic Reasoning. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[59]  Jack B. Soll,et al.  Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[60]  Terri R. Kurtzberg,et al.  Positive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[61]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average? , 1999 .

[62]  Izak Benbasat,et al.  Evaluating the Impact of DSS, Cognitive Effort, and Incentives on Strategy Selection , 1999, Inf. Syst. Res..

[63]  James W. Taylor Evaluating Volatility and Interval Forecasts , 1999 .

[64]  Robert Fildes,et al.  Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy? , 1999 .

[65]  William Remus,et al.  The impact of incentives on the accuracy of subjects in judgmental forecasting experiments , 1998 .

[66]  S. French,et al.  Forecasting with judgment , 1998 .

[67]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Aspects of Investor Psychology , 1998 .

[68]  John Rohrbaugh,et al.  Accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series data: Characteristics, causes, and remediation strategies for forecasting , 1998 .

[69]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  The Early History of Probability Forecasts: Some Extensions and Clarifications , 1998 .

[70]  Dilek Önkal-Atay,et al.  Currency forecasting: an investigation of extrapolative judgement , 1997 .

[71]  Lauren G. Block,et al.  Vividness Effects: A Resource-Matching Perspective , 1997 .

[72]  Gideon Keren,et al.  On The Calibration of Probability Judgments: Some Critical Comments and Alternative Perspectives , 1997 .

[73]  Terry Connolly,et al.  Decomposed versus holistic estimates of effort required for software writing tasks , 1997 .

[74]  William Remus,et al.  Going Up–Going Down: How Good Are People at Forecasting Trends and Changes in Trends? , 1997 .

[75]  N. Harvey,et al.  Taking Advice: Accepting Help, Improving Judgment, and Sharing Responsibility☆☆☆ , 1997 .

[76]  Nada R. Sanders,et al.  The impact of task properties feedback on time series judgmental forecasting tasks , 1997 .

[77]  Dean P. Foster,et al.  Precision and Accuracy of Judgmental Estimation , 1997 .

[78]  T. R. Stewart,et al.  The Importance of the Task in Analyzing Expert Judgment , 1997 .

[79]  W. Remus,et al.  Does feedback improve the accuracy of recurrent judgmental forecasts? , 1996, Proceedings of the Thirtieth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[80]  D. Önkal Currency Forecasting: An Investigation of Extrapolative Judgment , 1997 .

[81]  Paul Goodwin,et al.  Adjusting Judgemental Extrapolations using Theil's Method and Discounted Weighted Regression , 1997 .

[82]  David I. Harvey The evaluation of economic forecasts , 1997 .

[83]  Paul Goodwin,et al.  Statistical correction of judgmental point forecasts and decisions , 1996 .

[84]  Derek W. Bunn,et al.  Non-traditional methods of forecasting , 1996 .

[85]  Michael E. Doherty,et al.  Social judgement theory , 1996 .

[86]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  Judgement or models: The importance of task differences , 1996 .

[87]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series: P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553–568 , 1996 .

[88]  George M. Kasper,et al.  A Theory of Decision Support System Design for User Calibration , 1996, Inf. Syst. Res..

[89]  Stacey M. Whitecotton The effects of experience and a decision aid on the slope, scatter, and bias of earnings forecasts , 1996 .

[90]  James Ramirez,et al.  Good probabilistic forecasters: The ‘consumer's’ perspective , 1996 .

[91]  F. Bolger,et al.  Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgemental forecasting , 1996 .

[92]  Andrew C. Pollock,et al.  An application of probability judgement accuracy measures to currency forecasting , 1996 .

[93]  Joa Sang Lim,et al.  Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information , 1996 .

[94]  M. O'Connor,et al.  Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature , 1996 .

[95]  Ahti Salo,et al.  Adjustment of forecasts with model consistent expectations , 1996 .

[96]  Valerie Belton,et al.  Remarks on the application of the analytic hierarchy process to judgmental forecasting , 1996 .

[97]  Dilek Önkal,et al.  Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices , 1996 .

[98]  A. Kluger,et al.  The effects of feedback interventions on performance: A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory. , 1996 .

[99]  L. Brown,et al.  Analyst Forecasting Errors and Their Implications for Security Analysis , 1996 .

[100]  Larry P. Ritzman,et al.  Bringing judgment into combination forecasts , 1995 .

[101]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Judging the probability that the next point in an observed time series will be below, or above, a given value , 1995 .

[102]  Dean P. Foster,et al.  Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off , 1995 .

[103]  Gerald F. Smith,et al.  Belief assessment: an underdeveloped phase of probability elicitation , 1995 .

[104]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  The anchor and adjustment heuristic in time‐series forecasting , 1995 .

[105]  G. R. Griffith,et al.  Modifying quantitative forecasts of livestock production using expert judgments: An application to the australian lamb industry , 1995 .

[106]  M. O'Connor,et al.  Judgemental adjustment of initial forecasts: Its effectiveness and biases , 1995 .

[107]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Why Are Judgments Less Consistent in Less Predictable Task Situations , 1995 .

[108]  T. Hamill,et al.  A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty , 1995 .

[109]  Dennis Murray,et al.  Note on Adjustments to Analysts' Earnings Forecasts Based Upon Systematic Cross-Sectional Components of Prior-Period Errors , 1995 .

[110]  John C. Alexander Refining the Degree of Earnings Surprise: A Comparison of Statistical and Analysts' Forecasts , 1995 .

[111]  William Remus,et al.  Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts , 1995 .

[112]  Dilek Önkal,et al.  Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices , 1995 .

[113]  Ahti Salo,et al.  Decomposition in the assessment of judgmental probability forecasts , 1995 .

[114]  Michael P. Clements Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting , 1995 .

[115]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining , 1995 .

[116]  Glenn J. Browne,et al.  Arguments in the practical reasoning underlying constructed probability responses , 1995 .

[117]  Dilek Önkal,et al.  An exploratory analysis of portfolio managers' probabilistic forecasts of stock prices , 1994 .

[118]  Paul Goodwin,et al.  Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting , 1994 .

[119]  C. Adcock,et al.  Modelling reality and personal modelling: Richard Flavell, (ed.), 1993, Contributions to Management Science, (Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg), 407 pp., paperback, DM120, ISBN 3-7908-0682-X , 1994 .

[120]  Arthur H. Goldsmith,et al.  Rationality in the mind's eye: An alternative test of rational expectations using subjective forecast and evaluation data☆ , 1994 .

[121]  Fred D. Davis,et al.  Harmful effects of seemingly helpful information on forecasts of stock earnings , 1994 .

[122]  M. Björkman Internal Cue Theory: Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in General Knowledge , 1994 .

[123]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  On the nature of expectations , 1994 .

[124]  D. Önkal,et al.  Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of Stock Prices in a Developing Stock Market , 1994 .

[125]  P. Juslin The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items , 1994 .

[126]  Shawn P. Curley,et al.  Applying a cognitive perspective to probability construction. , 1994 .

[127]  Andrew C. Pollock,et al.  Currency Forecasting: An Investigation Into Probability Judgement Accuracy , 1994 .

[128]  Robert E. Hastings,et al.  The Organization and Improvement of Market Forecasting , 1994 .

[129]  George Wright,et al.  Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting , 1994 .

[130]  Ab McClelland,et al.  The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and models 1980-1993 , 1994 .

[131]  George Wright,et al.  Assessing the quality of expert judgment: Issues and analysis , 1994, Decis. Support Syst..

[132]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  Scale, Variability, and the Calibration of Judgmental Prediction Intervals , 1993 .

[133]  Werner F. M. De Bondt,et al.  Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return , 1993 .

[134]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Context-Sensitive Heuristics in Statistical Reasoning , 1993 .

[135]  P. Goodwin,et al.  Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research , 1993 .

[136]  William Remus,et al.  Judgemental forecasting in times of change , 1993 .

[137]  C. Chatfield,et al.  The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study , 1993 .

[138]  B. Carlson,et al.  The Accuracy of Future Forecasts and Past Judgments , 1993 .

[139]  Michael R. Donihue Evaluating the role judgment plays in forecast accuracy , 1993 .

[140]  Fred Collopy,et al.  Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-Series Extrapolation , 1993 .

[141]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  Judgmental Versus Statistical Prediction: Information Asymmetry and Combination Rules , 1993 .

[142]  Stephen P. Baginski,et al.  The effects of management forecast precision on equity pricing and on the assessment of earnings , 1993 .

[143]  Charles E. Wasley,et al.  The stock price effects of alternative types of management earnings forecasts , 1993 .

[144]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Timid choices and bold forecasts: a cognitive perspective on risk taking , 1993 .

[145]  P. George Benson,et al.  The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters , 1992 .

[146]  Michael O'Driscoll,et al.  Factors Influencing Wishful Thinking and Predictions of Election Outcomes , 1992 .

[147]  Fred Collopy,et al.  Management science: D. Bunn and G. Wright, “Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis”, 37 (1991) 501–518 , 1992 .

[148]  Ilan Yaniv,et al.  A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts , 1992 .

[149]  M. O'Connor,et al.  Exploring judgemental forecasting , 1993 .

[150]  Nada R. Sanders,et al.  Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison , 1992 .

[151]  Peter Ayton,et al.  Judgmental probability forecasting in the immediate and medium term , 1992 .

[152]  C. J. Wolfe,et al.  Judgmental adjustment of forecasts: A comparison of methods , 1992 .

[153]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts , 1992 .

[154]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  Time series characteristics and the widths of judgemental confidence intervals , 1992 .

[155]  Larry P. Ritzman,et al.  The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting , 1992 .

[156]  R I Benjamin,et al.  Critical IT (information technology) issues: the next ten years. , 1992, Sloan management review.

[157]  Robert Fildes,et al.  Efficient use of information in the formation of subjective industry forecasts , 1991 .

[158]  Bruce Abramson,et al.  Using belief networks to forecast oil prices , 1991 .

[159]  Ilan Yaniv,et al.  Measures of Discrimination Skill in Probabilistic Judgment , 1991 .

[160]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. , 1991, Psychological review.

[161]  Thomas R. Willemain The effect of graphical adjustment on forecast accuracy , 1991 .

[162]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  The effect of group interaction processes on performance in time series extrapolation , 1991 .

[163]  J. Frank Yates,et al.  Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise , 1991 .

[164]  D. Bunn,et al.  Interaction of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods: issues & , 1991 .

[165]  Shawn P. Curley,et al.  Belief, knowledge, and uncertainty: A cognitive perspective on subjective probability , 1991 .

[166]  Mark S. Silver,et al.  Decisional Guidance for Computer-Based Decision Support , 1991, MIS Q..

[167]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Judgmental forecasting within and across correlated time-series , 1991 .

[168]  Luis G. Vargas,et al.  Prediction, Projection And Forecasting , 1990 .

[169]  Stephen K. McNees The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy , 1990 .

[170]  C. BlattbergRobert,et al.  Database Models and Managerial Intuition , 1990 .

[171]  Long-term Earnings Forecasts in the Electric Utility Industry: Accuracy and Valuation Implications , 1990 .

[172]  Robert C. Blattberg,et al.  Database Models And Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager , 1990 .

[173]  Paul B. Andreassen,et al.  Judgmental extrapolation and the salience of change , 1990 .

[174]  Brian P. Mathews,et al.  Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection , 1990 .

[175]  C. J. Wolfe,et al.  Judgmental adjustment of earnings forecasts , 1990 .

[176]  D. Turner The role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasting , 1990 .

[177]  R. H. Edmundson Decomposition; a strategy for judgemental forecasting , 1990 .

[178]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  A Comparison of Techniques for Judgmental Forecasting by Groups with Common Information , 1990 .

[179]  Pami Dua,et al.  Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts , 1990 .

[180]  M. Doherty,et al.  Effects of cognitive feedback on performance. , 1989 .

[181]  George Loewenstein,et al.  The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis , 1989, Journal of Political Economy.

[182]  Spyros Makridakis,et al.  Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals , 1989 .

[183]  A. Diamantopoulos,et al.  Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal eetension , 1989 .

[184]  M. O'Connor,et al.  An examination of the accuracy of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting , 1989 .

[185]  R. Clemen Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography , 1989 .

[186]  Thomas R. Willemain,et al.  Graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts , 1989 .

[187]  Gerardine DeSanctis,et al.  Graphical presentation of accounting data for financial forecasting: An experimental investigation , 1989 .

[188]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  Models of human behaviour and confidence in judgement: A review , 1989 .

[189]  Peter Ayton,et al.  Judgemental probability forecasts for personal and impersonal events , 1989 .

[190]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  An examination of group process in judgmental forecasting , 1989 .

[191]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Skill Scores Based on the Mean Square Error and Their Relationships to the Correlation Coefficient , 1988 .

[192]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  The use of non‐time series information in sales forecasting: A case study , 1988 .

[193]  Paul B. Andreassen Explaining the price-volume relationship: The difference between price changes and changing prices , 1988 .

[194]  J. Frank Yates,et al.  Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events: An extension of the covariance decomposition , 1988 .

[195]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Judgmental forecasting of univariate time series , 1988 .

[196]  J. Klayman Chapter 4 On the How and Why (not) of Learning from Outcomes , 1988 .

[197]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Judgmental aspects of forecasting: Needs and possible trends , 1988 .

[198]  Peter Ayton,et al.  Immediate and short-term judgemental forecasting: Personologism, situationism or interactionism? , 1988 .

[199]  Dane K. Peterson,et al.  Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information , 1988 .

[200]  David L. Ronis,et al.  Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method. , 1987 .

[201]  Lola L. Lopes,et al.  Distinguishing between random and nonrandom events. , 1987 .

[202]  Gideon Keren,et al.  Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study , 1987 .

[203]  Tyzoon T. Tyebjee,et al.  Behavioral biases in new product forecasting , 1987 .

[204]  Douglas J. Dalrymple Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey , 1987 .

[205]  R. H. Edmundson,et al.  The accuracy of combining judgemental and statistical forecasts , 1986 .

[206]  Ilan Vertinsky,et al.  Prediction of wins and losses in a series of field hockey games: A study of probability assessment quality and cognitive information-processing models of players , 1986 .

[207]  J. A. Sniezek The role of variable labels in cue probability learning tasks , 1986 .

[208]  Peter Ayton,et al.  The psychology of forecasting , 1986 .

[209]  Peter Ayton,et al.  Subjective confidence in forecasts: A response to fischhoff and MacGregor , 1986 .

[210]  Adamantios Diamantopoulos,et al.  Managerial intervention in forecasting. An empirical investigation of forecast manipulation , 1986 .

[211]  Sean Holly,et al.  Uncertainty and forecast precision , 1986 .

[212]  Donald V. Moser,et al.  The effects of interference, availability, and accounting information on investors' predictive judgments , 1986 .

[213]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  The attributes diagram A geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts , 1986 .

[214]  Willem A. Wagenaar,et al.  Calibration of probability assessments by professional blackjack dealers, statistical experts, and lay people , 1985 .

[215]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events. , 1985 .

[216]  Wilpen L. Gorr,et al.  ACCURACY OF JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING OF TIME SERIES , 1985 .

[217]  G. Blattenberger,et al.  Separating the Brier Score into Calibration and Refinement Components: A Graphical Exposition , 1985 .

[218]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series , 1985 .

[219]  Shawn P. Curley,et al.  Conditional distribution analyses of probabilistic forecasts , 1985 .

[220]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Probability Forecasting in Meteorology , 1984 .

[221]  Dennis A. Ahlburg,et al.  Forecast evaluation and improvement using theil's decomposition , 1984 .

[222]  Dan Zakay,et al.  The relationship between the probability assessor and the outcomes of an event as a determiner of subjective probability , 1983 .

[223]  J. Armstrong,et al.  Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings , 1983 .

[224]  Robert Carbone,et al.  Comparing for Different Time Series Methods the Value of Technical Expertise Individualized Analysis, and Judgmental Adjustment , 1983 .

[225]  Michael Lawrence An exploration of some practical issues in the use of quantitative forecasting models , 1983 .

[226]  Robert W. Holthausen,et al.  The economic consequences of accounting choice implications of costly contracting and monitoring , 1983 .

[227]  George Wright,et al.  Changes in the realism and distribution of probability assessments as a function of question type , 1982 .

[228]  Ayleen Wisudha,et al.  Distribution of probability assessments for almanac and future event questions , 1982 .

[229]  G. Brier,et al.  External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score , 1982 .

[230]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Subjective Confidence in Forecasts. , 1982 .

[231]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 , 1982 .

[232]  Robert L. Winkler,et al.  The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition , 1982 .

[233]  I. Eggleton Intuitive Time-Series Extrapolation , 1982 .

[234]  W. Bruce Johnson,et al.  The impact of confidence interval information on probability judgements , 1982 .

[235]  F. Mosteller,et al.  Eye-Fitting of Straight Lines. , 1981 .

[236]  L. Adelman The influence of formal, substantive, and contextual task properties on the relative effectiveness of different forms of feedback in multiple-cue probability learning tasks☆ , 1981 .

[237]  Spyros Makridakis,et al.  Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation , 1981 .

[238]  N. Weinstein Unrealistic optimism about future life events , 1980 .

[239]  William R. Ferrell,et al.  A model of calibration for subjective probabilities , 1980 .

[240]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer , 1981 .

[241]  Han Timmers,et al.  Inverse statistics and misperception of exponential growth , 1977 .

[242]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art , 1977 .

[243]  W. A. Wagenaar,et al.  Misperception of exponential growth , 1975 .

[244]  R M Dawes,et al.  Graduate admission variables and future success. , 1975, Science.

[245]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[246]  A. H. Murphy A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score , 1973 .

[247]  M. Björkman FEEDFORWARD AND FEEDBACK AS DETERMINERS OF KNOWLEDGE AND POLICY: NOTES ON A NEGLECTED ISSUE , 1972 .

[248]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Scalar and Vector Partitions of the Probability Score: Part I. Two-State Situation , 1972 .

[249]  C. B. Tilanus,et al.  Applied Economic Forecasting , 1966 .

[250]  F. Sanders On Subjective Probability Forecasting , 1963 .

[251]  F. C. Thorne,et al.  The psychology of control. , 1949, Journal of clinical psychology.

[252]  G. V. Cox Evaluation of Economic Forecasts , 1930 .