Factors Affecting the Usage of Major Heuristics in Nigeria Property Investment Valuation

Heuristics property research has been confined to Anchoring and Adjustment at the neglect of the other three major ones, which are, availability, representative and positivity. Even when researches in anchoring and adjustment heuristics are conducted they are usually confined to its existence. This study examined factors affecting the usage of heuristics from variables drawn and conceptualized from literature review (models). This is geared towards focusing heuristics property research particularly in this country. This study is a cross- sectional research entailing a survey of 159 out of the 270 Head Offices of Estate Surveying Firms in Lagos Metropolis, the entire 29 and 30 Head Offices of Estate Surveying Firms in Abuja and Port-Harcourt respectively. The primary source of data collection was through the questionnaire in the form of conducting interview. The data collected was measured using ordinal scales and analysed using categorical regression analysis on the SPSS Software. The zero- order correlation was used as a measure of variable importance being independent of the other predictors in the model. It was observed that the most predominant factors affecting the usage of Anchoring and adjustment; Availability; Representative and Positivity Heuristics are complexity of investment method of valuation (-.234; .462) and age of the estate surveying and valuation firm (-.339; -.297) respectively. The study thereby reveals areas of principal focus in heuristics property research so as to avoid superfluity.

[1]  T. Havard,et al.  Do valuers have a greater tendency to adjust a previous valuation upwards or downwards , 1999 .

[2]  Adelaide Gray,et al.  The role of investor sentiment in property investment decisions , 2002 .

[3]  T. Mussweiler The malleability of anchoring effects. , 2002, Experimental psychology.

[4]  Julián Díaz,et al.  Valuation Bias in Commercial Appraisal: A Transaction Price Feedback Experiment , 2001 .

[5]  Herbert A. Simon,et al.  Information-Processing Theory of Human Problem Solving , 1978 .

[6]  A. Tversky,et al.  The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. , 1981, Science.

[7]  Julian Diaz,et al.  The use of reference points in valuation judgment , 2001 .

[8]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment. , 1971 .

[9]  J. Hansz,et al.  Does assessed value influence market value judgments? , 2003 .

[10]  Marvin L. Wolverton,et al.  Price‐knowledge‐induced bias: a cross‐cultural comparison , 1997 .

[11]  Adelaide Gray,et al.  Decision making in small property companies , 2000 .

[12]  Prior transaction price induced smoothing: testing and calibrating the Quan--Quigley model at the disaggregate level , 2004 .

[13]  I. Megbolugbe,et al.  An empirical analysis of property appraisal and mortgage redlining , 1996 .

[14]  Jim Clayton,et al.  Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuations: Evidence from Individual Appraisals , 2000 .

[15]  The use of a pending mortgage reference point in valuation judgment , 2004 .

[16]  Julián Díaz,et al.  How valuers use the value opinions of others , 1997 .

[17]  Julian Diaz,et al.  An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimates on Appraisal Judgment , 1997 .

[18]  Julian Diaz,et al.  The use of information versus asking price in the real property negotiation process , 1996 .

[19]  Aspects of information processing in valuation judgement and choice , 1994 .

[20]  G. Northcraft,et al.  Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions , 1987 .

[21]  Does contingent reward reduce negotiation anchoring , 1999 .

[22]  Sharon R. Peck,et al.  Alternative Models of Price Behavior in Dyadic Negotiations: Market Prices, Reservation Prices, and Negotiator Aspirations , 1994 .

[23]  Tim Havard Valuation reliability and valuer behaviour , 2001 .

[24]  Melissa C. Thomas-Hunt,et al.  The Price Is Right—Or Is It? A Reference Point Model of Two-Party Price Negotiations , 1996 .

[25]  Roy T. Black Expert property negotiators and pricing information, revisited , 1997 .

[26]  William G. Hardin Heuristic use, credit constraints and real estate lending , 1997 .

[27]  A. Tversky,et al.  Choices, Values, and Frames , 2000 .

[28]  R. Hogarth Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics. , 1981 .

[29]  Paul Gallimore,et al.  Confirmation bias in the valuation process: a test for corroborating evidence , 1996 .

[30]  Elizabeth C. Hirschman,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.