Origins of Extreme Climate States during the 1982–83 ENSO Winter

Abstract The origin of extreme climate states during the exceptional 1982–83 El Nino event has continued to be a source of controversy and debate. On the one hand, empirical analyses of extratropical climate patterns during past El Nino events suggests the observed anomalies during 1982–83 were consistent with tropical forcing. On the other hand, the large amplitude of those anomalies have not been replicated in atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations for that period performed as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). It has recently become apparent, however, that the sea surface boundary conditions used to drive the multitude of AMIP simulations were deficient, in that at least 30% of available tropical Pacific SST observations were discarded in the analysis cycle due to excessive trimming constraints. It is shown from a reanalysis of the sea surface temperatures that the observed east equatorial Pacific waters were 1.5°C warmer than original estimates. In order to...

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