The Impact of ENSO on Rainfall in the Northeast of Thailand

The purposes of this research were to find the Impact of ENSO phenomenon to construct the forecasting model on rainfall, which classified by the river basins in the in the Northeastern Thailand. The secondary data with 12 variables viz the Meteorological factors , ENSO index, Asian Monsoon Index and Indian Oceans Dipole were collected from Thai Meteorological Department and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The data were analyzed by Factor analysis and found that 4, 5 and 4 factors were effected from ENSO and IOD index with 23.228%, 23.249% and 23.184% variation by the first PC at Khong, Chi and Moon River Basins, respectively. Moreover the Principle Component Regression analysis was also constructed for forecasting the rainfall in three rivers basins with coefficients of determination as .566, .551 and .523 respectively . Keywords: ENSO, ENSO Index, Principle Component analysis, Principle Component Regression *Corresponding author. E-mail : saowanee_st@hotmail.com