Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change

This paper describes the development and first results of the ''Community Integrated Assessment System'' (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the communities of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers' ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth's climate system is provided.

[1]  Robin K. S. Hankin,et al.  Introducing BACCO, an R Bundle for Bayesian Analysis of Computer Code Output , 2005 .

[2]  Sarah C. B. Raper,et al.  An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC) , 1995 .

[3]  F. Kaspar,et al.  Climate Impact Response Functions as Impact Tools in the Tolerable Windows Approach , 2003 .

[4]  Ian T. Foster,et al.  Globus: a Metacomputing Infrastructure Toolkit , 1997, Int. J. High Perform. Comput. Appl..

[5]  P. Jones,et al.  Representing Twentieth-Century Space-Time Climate Variability. Part II: Development of 1901-96 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate , 2000 .

[6]  Clare M. Goodess,et al.  The identification and evaluation of suitable scenario development methods for the estimation of future probabilities of extreme weather events , 2001 .

[7]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios , 2000 .

[8]  Rachel Warren,et al.  Impacts of global climate change at different annual mean global temperature increases , 2006 .

[9]  Toshihiko Masui,et al.  Assessment of C02 Reductions and Economic Impacts Considering Energy-Saving Investments , 2006 .

[10]  Robin K. S. Hankin,et al.  A NEW FAMILY OF NON‐NEGATIVE DISTRIBUTIONS , 2006 .

[11]  R. Schnur,et al.  Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C , 2006 .

[12]  Mike Hulme,et al.  Climate change and southern Africa : an exploration of some potential impacts and implications for the SADC region. A report commissioned by WWF International and co-ordinated by the Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK , 1996 .

[13]  Henry D. Jacoby,et al.  Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies , 1999 .

[14]  G. Fischer,et al.  Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets , 2001 .

[15]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models , 2006, Environ. Model. Softw..

[16]  K. Caldeira,et al.  Oceanography: Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH , 2003, Nature.

[17]  G. Fischer,et al.  Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios , 2004 .

[18]  R. Warrick,et al.  CLIMPACTS: An Integrated Model for Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on the New Zealand Environment , 1995 .

[19]  W. Hare,et al.  Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change-Contribution to the Specification of Art , 2003 .

[20]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  The Role of Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Heat Uptake on AOGCM Transient Temperature Response , 2002 .

[21]  D. Dokken,et al.  Climate change 2001 , 2001 .

[22]  H. Dowlatabadi Integrated assessment models of climate change: An incomplete overview , 1995 .

[23]  Thomas E. Downing,et al.  Climate change implications for Europe: An application of the ESCAPE model☆ , 1994 .

[24]  A. Manne,et al.  Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of CO2 Emission Limits , 1992 .

[25]  Jae Edmonds,et al.  The economics of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations , 1995 .

[26]  Stephen J. DeCanio,et al.  Economic models of climate change : a critique , 2003 .

[27]  Hans-Martin Füssel,et al.  The ICLIPS Impacts Tool: A Graphical User Interface to Climate Impact Response Functions for Integrated Assessments of Climate Change , 2003 .

[28]  William Gropp,et al.  MPICH2: A New Start for MPI Implementations , 2002, PVM/MPI.

[29]  H. Velthuizen,et al.  Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability , 2002 .

[30]  S. Rahmstorf Bifurcations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological cycle , 1995, Nature.

[31]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  Climatology: Threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet , 2004, Nature.

[32]  Nebojsa Nakicenovic,et al.  Avoiding dangerous climate change , 2006 .

[33]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  Pattern Scaling: An Examination of the Accuracy of the Technique for Describing Future Climates , 2003 .

[34]  Nigel W. Arnell,et al.  A simple water balance model for the simulation of streamflow over a large geographic domain , 1999 .

[35]  Erica L. Plambeck,et al.  The model: Integrating the science and economics of global warming , 1997 .

[36]  M. Granger Morgan,et al.  Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models , 1999 .

[37]  M. Kainuma,et al.  Scenario analysis of global warming using the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) , 1995 .

[38]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs , 1999 .

[39]  Zong-ci Zhao,et al.  Climate change 2001, the scientific basis, chap. 8: model evaluation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC , 2001 .

[40]  J. Alcamo IMAGE 2.0 : integrated modeling of global climate change , 1994 .

[41]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high‐resolution grids , 2005 .

[42]  美紀子 甲斐沼,et al.  Climate policy assessment : Asia-Pacific integrated modeling , 2003 .

[43]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Integrated assessment modelling for water resource allocation and management: A generalised conceptual framework , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[44]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100). , 2004 .

[45]  Anand Patwardhan,et al.  Assessing integrated assessments , 1996 .

[46]  Richard B. Alley,et al.  The West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Long Term Climate Policy , 2004 .

[47]  K. Riahi,et al.  Importance of Technological Change and Spillovers in Long-Term Climate Policy , 2006 .

[48]  Alban Kitous,et al.  Greenhouse gas reduction pathways in the UNFCCC process up to 2025 : policymakers summary and technical report , 2003 .

[49]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  Towards the Construction of Climate Change Scenarios , 1999 .

[50]  R. Betts,et al.  Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century , 2004 .

[51]  W. Cramer,et al.  A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate , 1992 .

[52]  N. Arnell Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios , 2004 .

[53]  Simon Batterbury,et al.  The African Sahel 25 years after the great drought: assessing progress and moving towards new agendas and approaches , 2001 .

[54]  T. Wigley,et al.  Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming , 2001, Science.

[55]  Nigel W. Arnell,et al.  Effects of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective , 2003 .

[56]  Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,et al.  Integrated Assessment of Benefits of climate policy , 2004 .

[57]  D. Moorhead,et al.  Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate , 2002, Nature.

[58]  Clare M. Goodess,et al.  Representing Climate and Extreme Weather Events in Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Existing Methods and Options for Development , 2003 .

[59]  Tom M. L. Wigley,et al.  Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes , 1993 .

[60]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[61]  Maja Schlüter,et al.  Application of a GIS-based simulation tool to illustrate implications of uncertainties for water management in the Amudarya river delta , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[62]  Jonathan Köhler,et al.  Decarbonizing the Global Economy with Induced Technological Change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG , 2006 .

[63]  Terry Barker,et al.  Achieving a 10% Cut in Europe's Carbon Dioxide Emissions using Additional Excise Duties: Coordinated, Uncoordinated and Unilateral Action using the Econometric Model E3ME , 1999 .

[64]  Jonathan Köhler,et al.  Avoiding dangerous climate change by inducing technological progress: Scenarios using a large-scale econometric model , 2006 .

[65]  Graham D. Riley,et al.  GCF : a general coupling framework , 2006 .

[66]  M. Granger Morgan,et al.  Learning from integrated assessment of climate change , 1996 .

[67]  Jan Rotmans,et al.  Image: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect , 1990 .