Modelling the consequences of land use change on the distribution of Carabidae

A matrix model for predicting the distribution of invertebrate species on the basis of site and land cover information is described. The model utilises the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology’s Land Classification to distribute spatially sample-based field estimates of land cover and species-habitat utilisation data to produce a mappable representation of invertebrate species occurrence at the km square level of resolution. The model incorporates the effects of changes in land use over fixed time periods using transition matrices detailing the proportional change in land cover types.