Future demand for space heating in buildings: a top-down analysis

If the trends in energy demand for residential sector space heating seen in Sweden from 1970 to 2005 continue, total demand is predicted to fall from 52 TWh to 47 TWh by 2050. This fall will occur despite projected increases in average dwelling size and population size. This is because the unit consumption (kWh/m2) of energy use for space heating continues to fall and its trajectory will offset increases in demand attributable to increases in average dwelling size and population size. These figures correspond to a reduction in unit consumption for energy for space heating from 125 kWh/m2 to between 60 kWh/m2 and 74 kWh/m2. This fall can be amplified through higher energy prices and increased energy efficiency, to reduce the total to 37 TWh (60 kWh/m2). However, the price elasticity of demand for energy for heating in dwellings has been found to be very low (-0.16), which means that improvements in energy efficiency brought about by direct regulatory intervention and incremental technical breakthroughs are of greater importance.