ANALYSIS OF EN ROUTE SECTOR DEMAND ERROR SOURCES

We present results of a detailed investigation into the error sources associated with en route sector demand prediction. Our analysis is based on interviews with air traffic controllers and personnel from the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC), aggregate data collected over the National Airspace System (NAS), and observations and data collected from on site visits to two en route center facilities (Chicago ZAU and Cleveland ZOB). Potential error sources are ranked in terms of their influence on sector demand prediction accuracy. Sector demand prediction data was generated using NASA’s Future ATC Concept Evaluation Tool (FACET) to predict future trajectories. Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) and Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) data were used for truth data. Given these data, both detailed and aggregate characteristics of errors in sector entry time and sector demand were analyzed. Results indicate several areas where computer readable input data sources are needed and where future research should be directed to improve our ability to predict sector demand.