Uncertainty in the Management of Fisheries: Contradictory Implications and a New Approach

Fisheries management is complicated in nearly all cases by various types of uncertainty. Numerous economics and fisheries science publications prescribe adjustments to harvest strategies and regulations in the face of uncertainty. The conclusions and recommendations from this body of work are often contradictory, critically dependent on stringent assumptions, and difficult to implement. In this article, we summarize and compare the conclusions of economists, ecologists, and fisheries scientists regarding management of fisheries under uncertainty. We identify common findings and discuss divergent ones. We also attempt to explain why the theoretical prescriptions of this literature have rarely been implemented by fisheries managers. Finally, we discuss management strategy evaluation (MSE), a simulationbased approach designed to identify harvest strategies that are robust to various types of uncertainty and capable of balancing multiple economic, social, and biological objectives.

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