Do Gun Buy-backs Save Lives? Evidence from Time Series Variation

Abstract Three recent papers have examined the effect of a national tightening of firearm legislation and gun buy-back in Australia in 1996–1997 on firearm and non-firearm death rates. Despite analysing almost the same data, the three papers reach rather different conclusions. In this article, we highlight key methodological concerns with the papers. We also make some judgments as to the evidence on the effectiveness of the Australian legislation. Drawing strong conclusions from simple time series analysis is not warranted, but to the extent that this evidence points anywhere, it is towards the firearms buy-back reducing gun deaths.

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