Hybrid forecasting system based on case-based reasoning and analytic hierarchy process for cost estimation

Cost estimating of highway projects with high accuracy at the early stage of project development is crucial for planning and feasibility studies. Various research have been attempted to develop cost prediction models in the early stage of a construction life cycle. This study uses the hybrid estimating tool to provide an effective cost data management for highway projects and accordingly develops a realistic cost estimating system. This study focused on the development of a more accurate estimate technique for highway projects in South Korea at the early stage using hybrid analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and case-based reasoning (CBR). Real case studies are used to demonstrate and validate the benefits of the proposed approach. It is expected that the developed CBR system is to provide decision-makers with accurate cost information to asses and compare multiple alternatives for obtaining the optimal solution and controlling cost.

[1]  Janet L. Kolodner,et al.  Case-Based Reasoning , 1989, IJCAI 1989.

[2]  Chester G. Wilmot,et al.  Neural Network Modeling of Highway Construction Costs , 2005 .

[3]  Tae Hwan Kim,et al.  Case- and Constraint-Based Project Planning for Apartment Construction , 1998, AI Mag..

[4]  Halime Demirkan,et al.  Integration of reasoning systems in architectural modeling activities , 1998 .

[5]  Joseph H. M. Tah,et al.  Information modellng for case-based construction planning of highway bridge projects , 1999 .

[6]  Kamal M. Al‐Subhi Al‐Harbi,et al.  Application of the AHP in project management , 2001 .

[7]  Jui-Sheng Chou,et al.  Web-based CBR system applied to early cost budgeting for pavement maintenance project , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[8]  James T. O'Connor,et al.  Preliminary Cost Estimates Using Probabilistic Simulation for Highway Bridge Replacement Projects , 2005 .

[9]  George Morcous,et al.  Modeling Bridge Deterioration Using Case-Based Reasoning , 2002 .

[10]  Nie-Jia Yau,et al.  Applying case-based reasoning technique to retaining wall selection , 1998 .

[11]  Iris D. Tommelein,et al.  Product modeling to support case-based construction planning and scheduling , 2004 .

[12]  T. Saaty.  Axiomatic foundation of the analytic hierarchy process , 1986 .

[13]  Ernest H. Forman,et al.  Group decision support with the Analytic Hierarchy Process , 1992, Decis. Support Syst..

[14]  Nie-Jia Yau,et al.  Applications of Case-Based Reasoning in Construction Engineering and Management , 1996 .

[15]  Kyung In Kang,et al.  Hybrid Models of Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms for Predicting Preliminary Cost Estimates , 2005 .

[16]  Michael J. Prietula,et al.  Examining the Feasibility of a Case-Based Reasoning Model for Software Effort Estimation , 1992, MIS Q..

[17]  Kyoungmin Kim,et al.  Preliminary Cost Estimation Model Using Case-Based Reasoning and Genetic Algorithms , 2010, J. Comput. Civ. Eng..

[18]  Ingoo Han,et al.  Case-based reasoning supported by genetic algorithms for corporate bond rating , 1999 .

[19]  Agnar Aamodt,et al.  Case-Based Reasoning: Foundational Issues, Methodological Variations, and System Approaches , 1994, AI Commun..

[20]  Taehoon Hong,et al.  CBR Revision Model for Improving Cost Prediction Accuracy in Multifamily Housing Projects , 2010 .

[21]  Sevgi Zeynep Dogan,et al.  Using Decision Trees for Determining Attribute Weights in a Case-Based Model of Early Cost Prediction , 2008 .

[22]  Steven J. Fenves,et al.  Conceptual Structural Design in SEED , 1995 .

[23]  S. Thomas Ng,et al.  Formulating Procurement Selection Criteria through Case-Based Reasoning Approach , 2005 .

[24]  Weng Tat Chan,et al.  Case-based reasoning approach in bid decision making , 2001 .

[25]  Phillip F. Ostwald,et al.  Construction cost analysis and estimating , 2000 .

[26]  Chang-Taek Hyun,et al.  A CBR-based hybrid model for predicting a construction duration and cost based on project characteristics in multi-family housing projects , 2010 .

[27]  Kyung In Kang,et al.  A case-based reasoning cost estimating model using experience by analytic hierarchy process , 2007 .

[28]  Irem Dikmen,et al.  A case-based decision support tool for bid mark-up estimation of international construction projects , 2007 .

[29]  J. Dyer.  Remarks on the analytic hierarchy process , 1990 .

[30]  W. M. Kim Roddis,et al.  Case-based approach for steel bridge fabrication errors , 1997 .

[31]  Jui-Sheng Chou,et al.  Internet-based preliminary highway construction cost estimating database , 2007 .

[32]  Tarek Hegazy,et al.  NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR PARAMETRIC COST ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY PROJECTS , 1998 .

[33]  Luis G. Vargas,et al.  The theory of ratio scale estimation: Saaty's analytic hierarchy process , 1987 .

[34]  Onur Behzat Tokdemir,et al.  Comparison of Case-Based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Networks , 1999 .

[35]  T. Saaty.  RANK GENERATION, PRESERVATION, AND REVERSAL IN THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY DECISION PROCESS , 1987 .

[36]  Tarek Hegazy,et al.  Developing Practical Neural Network Applications Using Back‐Propagation , 1994 .

[37]  Wei Tong Chen,et al.  Developing a CBR-based adjudication system for fatal construction industry occupational accidents. Part I: Building the system framework , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[38]  T. Saaty.  How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process , 1990 .

[39]  Ingoo Han,et al.  A case-based reasoning with the feature weights derived by analytic hierarchy process for bankruptcy prediction , 2002, Expert Syst. Appl..

[40]  C. M. Tam,et al.  Comparative Cost Analysis of Using High-Performance Concrete in Tall Building Construction by Artificial Neural Networks , 1999 .

[41]  Guorong Huang,et al.  Cost Modeling Based on Support Vector Regression for Complex Products During the Early Design Phases , 2007 .

[42]  Gerhard N. Schmitt.  Case-based design and creativity , 1993 .

[43]  Farhi Marir,et al.  CBRefurb: case-based cost estimation , 1995 .

[44]  Anne Chwolka,et al.  Group preference aggregation with the AHP - implications for multiple-issue agendas , 2001, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[45]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  Sustainable construction taking into account the building impact on the environment , 2010 .

[46]  Valentinas Podvezko,et al.  Application of AHP technique , 2009 .

[47]  Michael C. Vorster,et al.  Highway Construction Data Collection and Treatment in Preparation for Statistical Regression Analysis , 2009 .

[48]  Fatemeh Zahedi,et al.  The Analytic Hierarchy Process—A Survey of the Method and its Applications , 1986 .

[49]  Iris D. Tommelein,et al.  Boiler Erection Scheduling Using Product Models and Case-Based Reasoning , 1997 .