Towards concentration and decentralization: The evolution of urban spatial structure of Chinese cities, 2001-2016

Abstract While China’s unprecedented urbanization process has caused substantial changes in urban spatial structure of its cities, relatively less is known about the nature and form of such changes. This paper provides a descriptive analysis of the evolution of urban spatial structure of 286 Chinese cities during the 2001–2016 period. Drawing upon the fine-grained LandScan population dataset and with the use of exploratory spatial data analysis techniques, we develop an approach to identifying population centers and measuring urban spatial structure from the dimensions of polycentricity and dispersion. Specifically, a city is considered more polycentric when it has a more balanced distribution of population between its main center and subcenter(s), while it is considered less dispersed when it has a higher share of population living in its urban centers. The empirical results which are robust based on different definitions of population centers show that urban spatial structure of Chinese cities has generally evolved towards concentration (i.e., less dispersed) and decentralization (i.e., more polycentric), with the former trend being relatively stronger than the latter one. Furthermore, we find that the evolution patterns differ across cities with different original types of urban spatial structure. Cities with relatively higher degrees of dispersion are more likely to change their urban spatial structure. Moreover, we find that cities which have changed their urban spatial structure tend to have higher population and per capita GDP growth than those that have not changed. Significant differences in population and economic productivity growth are also found to exist across cities with different evolution patterns of urban spatial structure.