Market potential of compressed natural gas cars in the Swiss passenger car sector

The transportation sector generates 26% of total worldwide CO2 emissions (International Energy Agency (2000)). Given rising concerns over fossil fuel consumption and CO2 production by passenger cars, the automotive industry and governments are evaluating strategies for sustainable mobility. The European Communities (2001) believes that there is great promise in the development of a new generation of hybrid electric cars (electric motor coupled with an internal combustion engine), cars fuelled by compressed natural gas and, in the longer term, cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells. This article describes the specific competitive conditions that will determine the successful market diffusion of natural gas vehicles in Switzerland. The research described in this paper is part of the Alliance for Global Sustainability (AGS) project, “Role of Innovative Technology for Promoting Sustainable Mobility” being undertaken at the MIT, Paul Scherrer Institut and at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. The second part of the paper describes the factors necessary for natural gas cars to become widely used in vehicle traction systems. This analysis also identifies critical factors that affect both market penetration time and the rate of product diffusion into the mass market. The authors conclude that natural gas vehicles may smooth the impact of transport as they are less polluting and may be run on biogas, a renewable fuel.