Estimation of the economic addressable market of micro-CHP and heat pumps based on the status of the residential building sector in Germany

Abstract In order to reduce the impact of the anthropogenic climate effect, the transition to a highly efficient and sustainable energy system is needed. In particular, the heating sector shows a large potential for efficiency measures. Besides increasing requirements for the thermal insulation of buildings, in order to reduce the residential thermal energy demand, more efficient technologies such as micro combined heat and power generation units as well as heat pumps become increasingly important in the German households sector. Accordingly, this is a very dynamic market with uncertainties about the diffusion of these technologies for residential applications. Furthermore, forecasts of the development just focus on historical market trends. In order to forecast the possible market diffusion of the considered technologies until the year 2020 a new approach is developed based on the status of the residential building sector in Germany. Thereby, the possible market diffusion is based on the amount of units that are economically viable for the users, the so called economic addressable market. The analysis shows that the new construction of single family houses has the highest addressable market for heat pumps. The improvement of existing heating systems by heat pumps is only cost efficient, if an existing oil-based heating system is replaced. The use of micro-CHP units has the highest potential in multifamily houses. This applies for existing buildings as well as for the case of new construction. Nevertheless, the results just can indicate a tendency, how the market will develop in future.