Imagining the Impact of Electronic Commerce

A nalysing, in 1997, the likely impact of electronic commerce is about as easy as estimating the impact of the automobile a hundred years ago. Intuitively you know that the impact will be large, but as yet few people know how to drive, roads are of varying quality and garages and mechanics are nearly non-existent. With some confidence you can say that there will be a beneficial effect on supplying industries such as oil, steel, glass and rubber, and that direct competitors like farriers, oat-chandlers and carriage-makers are likely to suffer, but beyond that it is largely speculation. Who would have predicted that the car would lead to suburbs, air pollution and the geo-political importance of the Middle East? So it is with electronic commerce. It is clear that the supplying industries – producing computers, networking equipment and the software necessary for electronic commerce – will benefit. It is also evident that direct substitutes, such as retail travel agencies, retailers of shrinkwrapped software and bricks-and-mortar music stores, will suffer, but history suggests that these Imagining the Impact of Electronic Commerce