Analysis of the Development Situation and Forecasting of Development of Emergency Situations in Socio-Technical Systems

In this chapter, socio-technical analysis of Air Navigation System (ANS) has hold in the result of which the heterogeneous factors of professional and nonprofessional activities influencing on the decision-making (DM) of ANS’s human-operator (Н-О) in expected and unexpected aircraft’s (АС) operating conditions have classified, systematically compiled and formalized. The method of generalization of heterogeneous factors, which allows taking into account the structural hierarchy, heterogeneity, dynamic instability of factors of professional and non-professional activity influencing on the ANS’s H-O DM has developed, the conditions for their evaluation have determined. The vector of actions of the ANS’s H-O in the expected and unexpected AC operating conditions, taking into account the model of the operator’s behaviour, has considered. The authors have obtained the models of bipolar choice of operator of Socio-Technical System (STS) for using of reflexion theory and Markov network. They present the results of choosing in the direction of positive, negative pole, a mixed choice and forecasting of development of the situation. The authors demonstrate the methodology for analysis of flight situation development using GERT’s and Markov’s networks. Analysis of the Development Situation and Forecasting of Development of Emergency Situations in Socio-Technical Systems