Biased predecision processing.

Decision makers conduct biased predecision processing when they restructure their mental representation of the decision environment to favor one alternative before making their choice. The question of whether biased predecision processing occurs has been controversial since L. Festinger (1957) maintained that it does not occur. The author reviews relevant research in sections on theories of cognitive dissonance, decision conflict, choice certainty, action control, action phases, dominance structuring, differentiation and consolidation, constructive processing, motivated reasoning, and groupthink. Some studies did not find evidence of biased predecision processing, but many did. In the Discussion section, the moderators are summarized and used to assess the theories.

[1]  H. Montgomery.  Towards a perspective theory of decision making and judgment. , 1994, Acta psychologica.

[2]  John W. Payne,et al.  The Impact of accuracy and effort feedback and goals on adaptive decision behavior , 1990 .

[3]  M. F. Luce,et al.  Constructive Consumer Choice Processes , 1998 .

[4]  Henry Montgomery,et al.  Decision Making and Action , 1998 .

[5]  K. A. Ericsson,et al.  Verbal reports as data. , 1980 .

[6]  O. Svenson.  Decision Making and the Search for Fundamental Psychological Regularities: What Can Be Learned from a Process Perspective? , 1996 .

[7]  Thomas S. Wallsten,et al.  The effect of constant outcome value on judgments and decision making given linguistic probabilities , 1992 .

[8]  H. Montgomery,et al.  The Judgment-Choice Discrepancy: Non-Compatibility or Restructuring? , 1994 .

[9]  S. Chaiken,et al.  Dual-process theories in social psychology , 1999 .

[10]  E. Harmon-Jones,et al.  Cognitive dissonance: Progress on a pivotal theory in social psychology. , 1999 .

[11]  John W. Payne,et al.  A Constructive Process View of Decision Making: Multiple Strategies in Judgment and Choice , 1992 .

[12]  O. Svenson,et al.  Turning prior disadvantages into advantages : Differentiation and consolidation in real-life decision making , 1997 .

[13]  Tadeusz Tyszka,et al.  Must boxing verdicts be biased , 1991 .

[14]  J. M. Jellison,et al.  Avoidance of discrepant information prior to commitment. , 1968, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[15]  Anthony G. Greenwald,et al.  Psychological foundations of attitudes , 1968 .

[16]  John W. Payne,et al.  Task complexity and contingent processing in decision making: An information search and protocol analysis☆ , 1976 .

[17]  J. Kuhl,et al.  Volitional aspects of achievement motivation and learned helplessness: toward a comprehensive theory of action control. , 1984, Progress in experimental personality research.

[18]  P. Juslin,et al.  Judgment and decision making: Neo-Brunswikian and process tracing approaches , 1999 .

[19]  L. Mann,et al.  The Effects of Commitment and Choice Difficulty on Predecision Processes , 1970 .

[20]  Elliot Aronson,et al.  Taking a Closer Look: Reasserting the Role of the Self-Concept in Dissonance Theory , 1992 .

[21]  P. Gollwitzer.  Action phases and mind-sets , 1990 .

[22]  H. Montgomery.  From cognition to action: The search for dominance in decision making. , 1989 .

[23]  M. Kendall.  Rank Correlation Methods , 1949 .

[24]  D. Linder,et al.  Reactance theory analysis of predecisional cognitive processes. , 1970 .

[25]  Margaret G. Meloy,et al.  The Distortion of Information during Decisions , 1996 .

[26]  A. Tenbrunsel,et al.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , 2013 .

[27]  H. Montgomery,et al.  Process and structure in human decision making , 1992 .

[28]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk , 1979 .

[29]  M. Kendall,et al.  Rank Correlation Methods , 1949 .

[30]  Sanjoy Ghose,et al.  When Choice Models Fail: Compensatory Models in Negatively Correlated Environments , 1989 .

[31]  J. Mills.  The effect of certainty on exposure to information prior to commitment , 1965 .

[32]  B. Maher,et al.  Progress in experimental personality research , 1964 .

[33]  O. Svenson.  Differentiation and consolidation theory of human decision making: A frame of reference for the study of pre- and post-decision processes , 1992 .

[34]  R. A. Wicklund,et al.  Prechoice preference reversal as a result of threat to decision freedom. , 1970, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[35]  P. Slovic.  The Construction of Preference , 1995 .

[36]  K. Holyoak,et al.  Bidirectional reasoning in decision making by constraint satisfaction , 1999 .

[37]  I. Janis,et al.  Effects of anticipation of forthcoming information on predecisional processes. , 1969 .

[38]  I. Janis,et al.  13 – A Conflict-Theory Approach to Attitude Change and Decision Making1 , 1968 .

[39]  Esser,et al.  Alive and Well after 25 Years: A Review of Groupthink Research. , 1998, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[40]  O. Svenson,et al.  Post-decision consolidation, as a function of the instructions to the decision maker and of the decision problem. , 1994, Acta psychologica.

[41]  Henry Montgomery.  The search for a dominance structure in decision making: Examining the evidence. , 1993 .

[42]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Effects of mindset on positive illusions. , 1995, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[43]  Margaret G. Meloy,et al.  Predecisional Distortion of Product Information , 1998 .

[44]  J. Cooper.  Unwanted consequences and the self: In search of the motivation for dissonance reduction. , 1999 .

[45]  J. Edward Russo,et al.  Predecisional Distortion of Information by Auditors and Salespersons , 2000 .

[46]  I. Janis.  Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes , 1982 .

[47]  K. A. Ericsson,et al.  Protocol Analysis: Verbal Reports as Data , 1984 .

[48]  H. Gerard,et al.  SELF-EVALUATION AND THE EVALUATION OF CHOICE ALTERNATIVES. , 1964, Journal of personality.

[49]  E. O’neal.  Influence of future choice importance and arousal upon the halo effect , 1971, Integrative physiological and behavioral science : the official journal of the Pavlovian Society.

[50]  L. Festinger.  A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance , 1957 .

[51]  R. Abelson.  Decision making and decision theory , 1985 .

[52]  G. Klein,et al.  Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods , 1993 .

[53]  Jane Kennedy,et al.  Instrumental Bias in Motivated Reasoning: More When More Is Needed , 1997 .

[54]  P. Tannenbaum,et al.  Theories of cognitive consistency: a sourcebook. , 1968 .

[55]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Behavioral decision research: A constructive processing perspective. , 1992 .

[56]  P. Slovic,et al.  Value as a Determiner of Subjective Probability , 1966 .

[57]  J. Mills,et al.  Effects of Importance of a Prospective Choice on Private and Public Evaluations of the Alternatives , 1995 .

[58]  Eldar Shafir,et al.  Reason-based choice , 1993, Cognition.

[59]  D. Linder.  Temporal Changes in Predecision Preferences Among Choice Alternatives. , 1971 .

[60]  E. O’neal,et al.  Anticipated choice, attention, and halo effect , 1971 .

[61]  S. Fiske,et al.  The Handbook of Social Psychology , 1935 .

[62]  Jürgen Beckmann,et al.  Deliberative versus implemental states of mind: The issue of impartiality in predecisional and postdecisional information processing , 1987 .

[63]  J. Mills.  Improving the 1957 version of dissonance theory. , 2019, Cognitive dissonance: Reexamining a pivotal theory in psychology (2nd ed.)..

[64]  Henry Montgomery,et al.  Decision Rules and the Search for a Dominance Structure: Towards a Process Model of Decision Making* , 1983 .

[65]  E. Coupey.  Restructuring: Constructive Processing of Information Displays in Consumer Choice , 1994 .

[66]  K. Holyoak,et al.  The emergence of coherence over the course of decision making. , 2001 .

[67]  I. Janis,et al.  Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment , 1977 .

[68]  E. Harmon-Jones,et al.  An introduction to cognitive dissonance theory and an overview of current perspectives on the theory. , 1999 .

[69]  Fred Phillips,et al.  The distortion of criteria after decision-making , 2002 .

[70]  M. F. Luce,et al.  Choice processing in emotionally difficult decisions. , 1997, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[71]  J. Cooper,et al.  A New Look at Dissonance Theory , 1984 .

[72]  A. Ingham,et al.  Aspiration Levels in Bargaining and Economic Decision Making , 1984 .

[73]  A. Tversky,et al.  Choice under Conflict: The Dynamics of Deferred Decision , 1992 .

[74]  A. Elliot,et al.  On the motivational nature of cognitive dissonance: Dissonance as psychological discomfort. , 1994 .

[75]  B. Dosher,et al.  Strategies for multiattribute binary choice. , 1983, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[76]  H. Gerard,et al.  Choice difficulty, dissonance, and the decision sequence. , 1967, Journal of personality.

[77]  J. Ford,et al.  Process tracing methods: Contributions, problems, and neglected research questions , 1989 .

[78]  E. O’neal,et al.  The influence of anticipated choice on the halo effect , 1969 .

[79]  Tyszka.  Two Pairs of Conflicting Motives in Decision Making. , 1998, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[80]  O. Svenson,et al.  Decision making : cognitive models and explanations , 1997 .

[81]  Z. Kunda,et al.  The case for motivated reasoning. , 1990, Psychological bulletin.

[82]  Tadeusz Tyszka,et al.  Information seeking in open decision situations , 1980 .

[83]  Harold B. Gerard,et al.  Choice difficulty, dissonance, and the decision sequence1 , 1967 .

[84]  Aroldo Rodrígues.  Theories of cognitive consistency: a source book , 1969 .

[85]  J. March.  Bounded rationality, ambiguity, and the engineering of choice , 1978 .

[86]  Lee Roy Beach,et al.  Image theory: Theoretical and empirical foundations. , 1998 .

[87]  Robert A. Olsen.  Desirability bias among professional investment managers: some evidence from experts , 1997 .

[88]  H. Montgomery,et al.  A think aloud study of dominance structuring in decision processes , 1989 .

[89]  Julius Kuhl,et al.  Altering information to gain action control functional aspects of human information processing in decision making , 1984 .

[90]  John W. Payne,et al.  The adaptive decision maker: Name index , 1993 .

[91]  John W. Payne,et al.  Contingent decision behavior. , 1982 .

[92]  Peter M. Gollwitzer,et al.  Deliberative versus implemental mindsets in the control of action , 1999 .

[93]  N. Sanders,et al.  Journal of behavioral decision making: "The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting", 5 (1992) 39-52 , 1992 .

[94]  Elliot Aronson,et al.  Dissonance, hypocrisy, and the self-concept. , 2019, Cognitive dissonance: Reexamining a pivotal theory in psychology (2nd ed.)..

[95]  J. Frank Yates,et al.  Judgment and Decision Making , 1990 .

[96]  I. Simonson,et al.  Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects , 1989 .

[97]  M. F. Luce,et al.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes When Time Is Money: Decision Behavior under Opportunity-cost Time Pressure , 2022 .

[98]  Ward Edwards,et al.  Decision making : selected readings , 1967 .

[99]  W. Bechtel,et al.  Connectionism and the Mind , 1991 .

[100]  Henry Montgomery,et al.  Information search and evaluative processes in decision making: A computer based process tracing study , 1984 .

[101]  Berndt Brehmer,et al.  New directions in research on decision making , 1986 .

[102]  J. Mills,et al.  Divergence of private evaluations of alternatives prior to a choice. , 1979 .

[103]  O. Svenson,et al.  Analysing and aiding decision processes , 1983 .

[104]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  The adaptive decision maker , 1993 .

[105]  S. Moscovici,et al.  Biased information search in group decision making. , 2000, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

[106]  A. Tversky,et al.  Contingent weighting in judgment and choice , 1988 .

[107]  L. Festinger.  Conflict, Decision, and Dissonance , 1964 .