Combined Model for Forecasting Based on Positive Weights and Its Application in the Economy

The combined forecasting and the way of improving such forecasting methodology through optimized combination and recursion is the focus of this paper; the GMDH is applied to select variables relevant to economic forecasting models before establishing a single forecasting model such as regression model and neural network model; and the final step is to establish a combined forecasting model through positive weights by using the time series model established based on the GMDH.