Operational Risk of Aircraft System Failure

The purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology based on Event Tree Analysis (ETA) for identification of the possible operational consequences of aircraft system failures and their associated costs. The developed methodology uses scenarios to explain the adverse effects of failure on an aircraft’s operating capability, by an integration and correlation of key parameters and events that are driving factors in causing the ultimate state of aircraft operation. The methodology was developed through studies of consequence scenarios and risk estimations where empirical data were extracted through document studies and interviews. The paper also demonstrates the application of the methodology through a case study of a hypothetical commercial aircraft.