Predictive models for hotel booking cancellation: a semi-automated analysis of the literature

In reservation-based industries, accurate booking cancellation forecast is of foremost importance to estimate demand. By combining data science tools and capabilities with human judgement and interpretation it is possible to demonstrate how the semiautomatic analysis of the literature can contribute to synthetize research findings and identify research topics on the subject of booking cancellation forecasting. The data used was obtained through keyword search in Scopus and Web of Science databases. The methodology presented not only diminishes human bias, but also enhances the fact that data visualization and text mining techniques facilitate abstraction, expedite analysis and contribute to the improvement of reviews. Results show that albeit the importance of bookings’ cancellation forecast, further research on the subject is still needed. By detailing the full experimental procedure of the analysis, this work aims to encourage other authors to conduct automated literature analysis as a means to understand current research in their working fields.

[1]  Yutaka Matsuo,et al.  Prediction, Forecasting, and Chance Discovery , 2003, Chance Discovery.

[2]  Tareq Y. Al-Naffouri,et al.  Peak Reduction and Clipping Mitigation in OFDM by Augmented Compressive Sensing , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing.

[3]  Nuno Antonio,et al.  Predicting hotel booking cancellations to decrease uncertainty and increase revenue , 2017 .

[4]  Yang Yang,et al.  Monitoring and Forecasting Tourist Activities with Big Data , 2017 .

[5]  Chih-Chien Chen Cancellation policies in the hotel, airline and restaurant industries , 2016 .

[6]  Dolores Romero Morales,et al.  Forecasting cancellation rates for services booking revenue management using data mining , 2010, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[7]  Yin Kia Chiam,et al.  Text-Mining Techniques and Tools for Systematic Literature Reviews: A Systematic Literature Review , 2017, 2017 24th Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference (APSEC).

[8]  R Core Team,et al.  R: A language and environment for statistical computing. , 2014 .

[9]  Ana Catarina Calheiros,et al.  Sentiment Classification of Consumer-Generated Online Reviews Using Topic Modeling , 2017 .

[10]  P. Rita,et al.  A Text Mining-Based Review of Cause-Related Marketing Literature , 2015, Journal of Business Ethics.

[11]  Sheryl E. Kimes,et al.  A comparison of forecasting methods for hotel revenue management , 2003 .

[12]  Nauman Bin Ali,et al.  Reliability of search in systematic reviews: Towards a quality assessment framework for the automated-search strategy , 2018, Inf. Softw. Technol..

[13]  Michael I. Jordan,et al.  Latent Dirichlet Allocation , 2001, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[14]  Ali Selamat,et al.  Applying Data Analytics Approach in Systematic Literature Review: Master Data Management Case Study , 2017, New Trends in Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques.

[15]  Richard T. Watson,et al.  Analyzing the Past to Prepare for the Future: Writing a Literature Review , 2002, MIS Q..

[16]  Shashi S Nambisan,et al.  A Decision–Support Tool for Airline Yield Management Using Genetic Algorithms , 2003 .

[17]  Athanasius Zakhary,et al.  Forecasting hotel arrivals and occupancy using Monte Carlo simulation , 2011 .

[18]  Kurt Hornik,et al.  Natural Language Processing Infrastructure , 2015 .

[19]  Jochen Wirtz,et al.  Has Revenue Management become Acceptable? , 2003 .

[20]  Vladimir Sashov Zhechev,et al.  Hotel Revenue Management – A Critical Literature Review , 2011 .

[21]  Shadi Sharif Azadeh,et al.  Railway demand forecasting in revenue management using neural networks , 2013 .

[22]  K. Talluri,et al.  The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management , 2004 .

[23]  Rachel Schutt,et al.  Doing Data Science , 2013 .

[24]  Pearl Brereton,et al.  Performing systematic literature reviews in software engineering , 2006, ICSE.

[25]  Basak Denizci Guillet,et al.  Revenue management research in hospitality and tourism: A critical review of current literature and suggestions for future research , 2015 .

[26]  Bogdan Gabrys,et al.  Dynamic combination of forecasts generated by diversification procedures applied to forecasting of airline cancellations , 2009, 2009 IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering.

[27]  Bryan C. Pijanowski,et al.  Automated content analysis: addressing the big literature challenge in ecology and evolution , 2016 .

[28]  P. Glasziou,et al.  Systematic review automation technologies , 2014, Systematic Reviews.

[29]  Nebojsa J. Bojovic,et al.  Railway Demand Forecasting , 2016 .

[30]  Kenneth Benoit,et al.  Text Analysis in R , 2017 .

[31]  Michael S. Lewis-Beck,et al.  Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice , 2005 .

[32]  Wen-Chyuan Chiang,et al.  An overview of research on revenue management: current issues and future research , 2007 .

[33]  Andreas Metzger,et al.  Predictive Monitoring of Heterogeneous Service-Oriented Business Networks: The Transport and Logistics Case , 2012, 2012 Annual SRII Global Conference.

[34]  Petri Mannonen,et al.  Enriching Literature Reviews with Computer-Assisted Research Mining. Case: Profiling Group Support Systems Research , 2007, 2007 40th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'07).

[35]  M. Narasimha Murty,et al.  On Finding the Natural Number of Topics with Latent Dirichlet Allocation: Some Observations , 2010, PAKDD.

[36]  Amir F. Atiya,et al.  An integrated framework for advanced hotel revenue management , 2011 .

[37]  Yingjie Lan,et al.  Regret in Overbooking and Fare-Class Allocation for Single Leg , 2011, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag..

[38]  Zoltan Nagy,et al.  Data on the interaction between thermal comfort and building control research , 2018, Data in brief.

[39]  Tsung-Hsien Tsai A Temporal Case-Based Procedure for Cancellation Forecasting: A Case Study , 2011 .

[40]  B. Gabrys,et al.  Evolving forecast combination structures for airline revenue management , 2012, Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management.

[41]  Ana de Almeida,et al.  Using data science to predict hotel booking cancellations , 2016 .

[42]  Dursun Delen,et al.  Seeding the survey and analysis of research literature with text mining , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[43]  Misuk Lee,et al.  Modeling and forecasting hotel room demand based on advance booking information , 2018, Tourism Management.

[44]  Breffni M. Noone,et al.  Hotel Overbooking , 2011 .

[45]  Kurt Hornik,et al.  topicmodels : An R Package for Fitting Topic Models , 2016 .

[46]  Cinzia Cirillo,et al.  Dynamic discrete choice model for railway ticket cancellation and exchange decisions , 2017 .

[47]  Paulo Cortez,et al.  Business intelligence in banking: A literature analysis from 2002 to 2013 using text mining and latent Dirichlet allocation , 2015, Expert Syst. Appl..

[48]  Kelly McGuire The Analytic Hospitality Executive : Implementing Data Analytics in Hotels and Casinos , 2016 .

[49]  Xiaolong Guo,et al.  Customer perspective on overbooking: The failure of customers to enjoy their reserved services, accidental or intended? , 2016 .

[50]  Ana de Almeida,et al.  Predicting Hotel Bookings Cancellation with a Machine Learning Classification Model , 2017, 2017 16th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA).

[51]  Cleiton Silva,et al.  Using Information Visualization and Text Mining to Facilitate the Conduction of Systematic Literature Reviews , 2012, ICEIS.