Modelling river temperature from air temperature: case of the River Drava (Croatia)

Abstract Measurements made in the past few decades undeniably indicate change in the climate. The most visible sign of global climate change is air temperature, while less visible indicators include changes in river water temperatures. Changes in river temperature can significantly affect the environment, primarily the biosphere. The physical, biological and chemical characteristics of the river are directly affected by water temperature, although estimation of this relationship presents a complex problem. Although river temperature is influenced by hydrological and meteorological factors, the purpose of this study is to model daily water temperature using only one known parameter, mean air temperature. The relationship between the daily mean air and daily water temperature of the River Drava in Croatia is analysed using linear regression, stochastic modelling or nonlinear regression and multilayer perceptron (MLP) feed-forward neural networks. The results indicate that the MLP models are much better models which can be used for the estimation and prediction of daily mean river temperature. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor M. Acreman

[1]  Steven C. McCutcheon,et al.  Stream Temperature Simulation of Forested Riparian Areas: I. Watershed-Scale Model Development , 1998 .

[2]  Jean-Pierre Fortin,et al.  Modèle CEQUEAU: manuel d'utilisation , 1981 .

[3]  F. A. Johnson.  Stream temperatures in an Alpine area , 1971 .

[4]  Karim C. Abbaspour,et al.  A wavelet-neural network hybrid modelling approach for estimating and predicting river monthly flows , 2013 .

[5]  Bernard Bobée,et al.  A Review of Statistical Water Temperature Models , 2007 .

[6]  J. R. Brett,et al.  Some Principles in the Thermal Requirements of Fishes , 1956, The Quarterly Review of Biology.

[7]  Gustavo Barbosa Lima da Silva,et al.  Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models , 2014 .

[8]  André St-Hilaire,et al.  Water temperature modelling in a small forested stream: implication of forest canopy and soil temperature , 2000 .

[9]  D. Legates,et al.  Evaluating the use of “goodness‐of‐fit” Measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation , 1999 .

[10]  André St-Hilaire,et al.  Stochastic modelling of water temperatures in a small stream using air to water relations , 1998 .

[11]  U. C. Kothyari,et al.  Artificial neural networks for daily rainfall—runoff modelling , 2002 .

[12]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  Stream temperature dynamics: Measurements and modeling , 1993 .

[13]  Radford M. Neal.  Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning , 2007, Technometrics.

[14]  R. L. Hunt,et al.  Influences of forest and rangeland management on salmonid fishes and their habitats , 1992 .

[15]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[16]  Taha B. M. J. Ouarda,et al.  Comparison of non-parametric and parametric water temperature models on the Nivelle River, France , 2008 .

[17]  D. Cluis,et al.  RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STREAM WATER TEMPERATURE AND AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE , 1972 .

[18]  Taha B. M. J. Ouarda,et al.  Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec, Canada) , 2007 .

[19]  Niyazi Kilic,et al.  Estimation of stream temperature in firtina creek (Rize-Turkiye) using artificial neural network model. , 2007, Journal of environmental biology.

[20]  Daniel Caissie,et al.  Stream temperature modelling using artificial neural networks: application on Catamaran Brook, New Brunswick, Canada , 2008 .

[21]  V. Jothiprakash,et al.  Improving the performance of data-driven techniques through data pre-processing for modelling daily reservoir inflow , 2011 .

[22]  M. Valipour,et al.  Comparison of the ARMA, ARIMA, and the autoregressive artificial neural network models in forecasting the monthly inflow of Dez dam reservoir , 2013 .

[23]  A. Malik,et al.  Artificial neural network modeling of the river water quality—A case study , 2009 .

[24]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[25]  Franz Nobilis,et al.  LONG‐TERM PERSPECTIVE ON THE NATURE OF THE AIR–WATER TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIP: A CASE STUDY , 1997 .

[26]  Mysore G. Satish,et al.  Predicting river water temperatures using the equilibrium temperature concept with application on Miramichi River catchments (New Brunswick, Canada) , 2005 .

[27]  Eloy Kaviski,et al.  Monthly rainfall–runoff modelling using artificial neural networks , 2011 .

[28]  Xin-She Yang,et al.  Firefly Algorithms for Multimodal Optimization , 2009, SAGA.

[29]  Arno Mohl.  LIFE River restoration projects in Austria , 2004 .

[30]  D. Caissie.  The thermal regime of rivers : a review , 2006 .

[31]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Learning representations by back-propagating errors , 1986, Nature.

[32]  George Cybenko,et al.  Approximation by superpositions of a sigmoidal function , 1992, Math. Control. Signals Syst..

[33]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures , 1998 .

[34]  T. Al Austin,et al.  Quantifying the effects of stream discharge on summer river temperature , 1998 .

[35]  Veerasamy Kothandaraman,et al.  Analysis of Water Temperature Variations in Large River , 1971 .

[36]  Kenneth Levenberg.  A METHOD FOR THE SOLUTION OF CERTAIN NON – LINEAR PROBLEMS IN LEAST SQUARES , 1944 .

[37]  Alan J. Thomson,et al.  Estimating Missing Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures , 1983 .

[38]  Timothy R. H. Davies,et al.  Estimating missing daily maximum and minimum temperatures for Mount Cook, South Island, New Zealand, using a statistical model and 'aiNet' neural network models , 2001 .

[39]  A. Mackey,et al.  The prediction of water temperatures in chalk streams from air temperatures , 1991, Hydrobiologia.

[40]  L. M. Svendsen,et al.  The Rivers of Europe , 2009 .

[41]  THE INFLUENCE OF THREE CROATIAN HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANTS OPERATION ON THE RIVER DRAVA HYDROLOGICAL AND SEDIMENT REGIME , 2008 .

[42]  Marko Ćaleta,et al.  ZNAČAJKE FAUNE RIBA DONJEG TOKA RIJEKE DRAVE I OKOLNIH POPLAVNIH STANIŠTA KOD DONJEG MIHOLJCA (ISTOČNA HRVATSKA) , 2012 .

[43]  Shie-Yui Liong,et al.  An ANN application for water quality forecasting. , 2008, Marine pollution bulletin.

[44]  G. Sahoo,et al.  Forecasting stream water temperature using regression analysis, artificial neural network, and chaotic non-linear dynamic models , 2009 .

[45]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  STREAM TEMPERATURE ESTIMATION FROM AIR TEMPERATURE , 1993 .

[46]  S. Hyakin,et al.  Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation , 1994 .

[47]  K. Smith,et al.  The prediction of river water temperatures / Prédiction des températures des eaux de rivière , 1981 .

[48]  P. E. O'connell,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part III - The Ray catchment at Grendon Underwood , 1970 .