Species Richness and Evolutionary Niche Dynamics: A Spatial Pattern–Oriented Simulation Experiment

Evolutionary processes underlying spatial patterns in species richness remain largely unexplored, and correlative studies lack the theoretical basis to explain these patterns in evolutionary terms. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to evaluate, under a pattern‐oriented modeling approach, whether evolutionary niche dynamics (the balance between niche conservatism and niche evolution processes) can provide a parsimonious explanation for patterns in species richness. We model the size, shape, and location of species’ geographical ranges in a multivariate heterogeneous environmental landscape by simulating an evolutionary process in which environmental fluctuations create geographic range fragmentation, which, in turn, regulates speciation and extinction. We applied the model to the South American domain, adjusting parameters to maximize the correspondence between observed and predicted patterns in richness of about 3,000 bird species. Predicted spatial patterns, which closely resemble observed ones ( \documentclass{aastex} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{bm} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{pifont} \usepackage{stmaryrd} \usepackage{textcomp} \usepackage{portland,xspace} \usepackage{amsmath,amsxtra} \usepackage[OT2,OT1]{fontenc} \newcommand\cyr{ \renewcommand\rmdefault{wncyr} \renewcommand\sfdefault{wncyss} \renewcommand\encodingdefault{OT2} \normalfont \selectfont} \DeclareTextFontCommand{\textcyr}{\cyr} \pagestyle{empty} \DeclareMathSizes{10}{9}{7}{6} \begin{document} \landscape $$r^{2}=0.795$$ \end{document} ), proved sensitive to niche dynamics processes. Our simulations allow evaluation of the roles of both evolutionary and ecological processes in explaining spatial patterns in species richness, revealing the enormous potential of the link between ecology and historical biogeography under integrated theoretical and methodological frameworks.

[1]  Nancy Knowlton,et al.  Evolution and the latitudinal diversity gradient: speciation, extinction and biogeography. , 2007, Ecology letters.

[2]  D. Schluter,et al.  The Latitudinal Gradient in Recent Speciation and Extinction Rates of Birds and Mammals , 2007, Science.

[3]  Carsten Rahbek,et al.  Predicting continental-scale patterns of bird species richness with spatially explicit models , 2007, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[4]  J. Diniz‐Filho,et al.  Macroevolutionary dynamics in environmental space and the latitudinal diversity gradient in New World birds , 2007, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[5]  Eileen M. O'Brien.  Biological relativity to water–energy dynamics , 2006 .

[6]  J. W. Valentine,et al.  Out of the Tropics: Evolutionary Dynamics of the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient , 2006, Science.

[7]  Birgit Müller,et al.  A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models , 2006 .

[8]  Thiago F. Rangel,et al.  Towards an integrated computational tool for spatial analysis in macroecology and biogeography , 2006 .

[9]  R. Ricklefs.  Evolutionary diversification and the origin of the diversity-environment relationship. , 2006, Ecology.

[10]  James H. Brown,et al.  Kinetic effects of temperature on rates of genetic divergence and speciation. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[11]  H. Balslev,et al.  Historical legacies in the geographical diversity patterns of New World palm (Arecaceae) subfamilies , 2006 .

[12]  B. A. Hawkins,et al.  Post‐Eocene climate change, niche conservatism, and the latitudinal diversity gradient of New World birds , 2006 .

[13]  DIVERGENT TIMING AND PATTERNS OF SPECIES ACCUMULATION IN LOWLAND AND HIGHLAND NEOTROPICAL BIRDS , 2006, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.

[14]  Sergey Gavrilets,et al.  Dynamic patterns of adaptive radiation. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[15]  Uta Berger,et al.  Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology , 2005, Science.

[16]  C. Graham,et al.  Niche Conservatism: Integrating Evolution, Ecology, and Conservation Biology , 2005 .

[17]  R. Whittaker,et al.  GLOBAL MODELS FOR PREDICTING WOODY PLANT RICHNESS FROM CLIMATE: DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION , 2005 .

[18]  Samuel M. Scheiner,et al.  Developing Unified Theories in Ecology as Exemplified with Diversity Gradients , 2005, The American Naturalist.

[19]  José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho,et al.  Neutral community dynamics, the mid‐domain effect and spatial patterns in species richness , 2005 .

[20]  J. Cracraft,et al.  Historical biogeography and diversification within the Neotropical parrot genus Pionopsitta (Aves: Psittacidae) , 2005 .

[21]  Julie R. Etterson,et al.  EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE , 2005 .

[22]  J. L. Gittleman,et al.  Phylogeny can make the mid-domain effect an inappropriate null model , 2005, Biology Letters.

[23]  J. Diniz‐Filho,et al.  Water links the historical and contemporary components of the Australian bird diversity gradient , 2005 .

[24]  K. Gaston,et al.  Heritability of Geographic Range Sizes Revisited: A Reply to Hunt et al. , 2005, The American Naturalist.

[25]  D. Jablonski,et al.  Species‐Level Heritability Reaffirmed: A Comment on “On the Heritability of Geographic Range Sizes” , 2005, The American Naturalist.

[26]  J. Diniz‐Filho,et al.  An evolutionary tolerance model explaining spatial patterns in species richness under environmental gradients and geometric constraints , 2005 .

[27]  Michael S. Gaines,et al.  Analysis of adaptation in heterogeneous landscapes: Implications for the evolution of fundamental niches , 1992, Evolutionary Ecology.

[28]  Kate E. Jones,et al.  Phylogeny and Conservation: Age and area revisited: identifying global patterns and implications for conservation , 2005 .

[29]  rme,et al.  TESTING FOR LATITUDINAL BIAS IN DIVERSIFICATION RATES : AN EXAMPLE USING NEW WORLD BIRDS , 2005 .

[30]  R. Holt.  Demographic constraints in evolution: Towards unifying the evolutionary theories of senescence and niche conservatism , 2005, Evolutionary Ecology.

[31]  M. Donoghue,et al.  Historical biogeography, ecology and species richness. , 2004, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[32]  Richard Field,et al.  Predictions and tests of climate‐based hypotheses of broad‐scale variation in taxonomic richness , 2004 .

[33]  José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho,et al.  Macroecological explanations for differences in species richness gradients: a canonical analysis of South American birds , 2004 .

[34]  S. Peck.  Simulation as experiment: a philosophical reassessment for biological modeling. , 2004, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[35]  J. Diniz‐Filho,et al.  A test of multiple hypotheses for the species richness gradient of South American owls , 2004, Oecologia.

[36]  P. C. Mathias,et al.  Sensitivity of macroecological patterns of South American parrots to differences in data sources , 2004 .

[37]  R. Ricklefs,et al.  Geographical distribution and ecological conservatism of disjunct genera of vascular plants in eastern Asia and eastern North America , 2004 .

[38]  Carsten Rahbek,et al.  The Mid‐Domain Effect and Species Richness Patterns:What Have We Learned So Far? , 2004, The American Naturalist.

[39]  Helmut Hillebrand,et al.  On the Generality of the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient , 2004, The American Naturalist.

[40]  J. Wiens.  SPECIATION AND ECOLOGY REVISITED: PHYLOGENETIC NICHE CONSERVATISM AND THE ORIGIN OF SPECIES , 2004, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.

[41]  R. Ricklefs.  A comprehensive framework for global patterns in biodiversity , 2004 .

[42]  Richard Field,et al.  ENERGY, WATER, AND BROAD‐SCALE GEOGRAPHIC PATTERNS OF SPECIES RICHNESS , 2003 .

[43]  Dawn M. Kaufman,et al.  LATITUDINAL GRADIENTS OF BIODIVERSITY:Pattern,Process,Scale,and Synthesis , 2003 .

[44]  J. Svenning,et al.  Deterministic Plio‐Pleistocene extinctions in the European cool‐temperate tree flora , 2003 .

[45]  José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho,et al.  PRODUCTIVITY AND HISTORY AS PREDICTORS OF THE LATITUDINAL DIVERSITY GRADIENT OF TERRESTRIAL BIRDS , 2003 .

[46]  D. Ackerly.  Community Assembly, Niche Conservatism, and Adaptive Evolution in Changing Environments , 2003, International Journal of Plant Sciences.

[47]  K. Gaston,et al.  On the Heritability of Geographic Range Sizes , 2003, The American Naturalist.

[48]  L. Bromham,et al.  Testing the link between the latitudinal gradient in species richness and rates of molecular evolution , 2003, Journal of evolutionary biology.

[49]  J. Diniz‐Filho,et al.  Spatial autocorrelation and red herrings in geographical ecology , 2003 .

[50]  James H. Brown,et al.  Response to Comment on "Global Biodiversity, Biochemical Kinetics, and the Energetic-Equivalence Rule" , 2003, Science.

[51]  G. Yohe,et al.  A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems , 2003, Nature.

[52]  Eric Winsberg,et al.  Simulated Experiments: Methodology for a Virtual World , 2003, Philosophy of Science.

[53]  Robert D. Holt,et al.  On the evolutionary ecology of species' ranges , 2003 .

[54]  Kevin J. Gaston,et al.  The structure and dynamics of geographic ranges , 2003 .

[55]  P. Stephens,et al.  Explaining Species Richness from Continents to Communities: The Time‐for‐Speciation Effect in Emydid Turtles , 2002, The American Naturalist.

[56]  R. Jansson,et al.  The Fate of Clades in a World of Recurrent Climatic Change: Milankovitch Oscillations and Evolution , 2002 .

[57]  Campbell O. Webb,et al.  Phylogenies and Community Ecology , 2002 .

[58]  W. Broecker,et al.  Last Interglacial Climates , 2002, Quaternary Research.

[59]  A. Prinzing.  The niche of higher plants: evidence for phylogenetic conservatism , 2001, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[60]  B. Hawkins.  Ecology's oldest pattern? , 2001, Endeavour.

[61]  C. Rahbek,et al.  Geometric constraints explain much of the species richness pattern in African birds , 2001, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[62]  R. Shaw,et al.  Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. , 2001, Science.

[63]  G. Graves,et al.  Multiscale assessment of patterns of avian species richness , 2001, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[64]  R. Whittaker,et al.  Scale and species richness: towards a general, hierarchical theory of species diversity , 2001 .

[65]  Mikko Mönkkönen,et al.  Random processes and geographic species richness patterns: why so few species in the north? , 2001 .

[66]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary , 2000, Paleobiology.

[67]  Michael T. Coe,et al.  Testing the performance of a dynamic global ecosystem model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure , 2000 .

[68]  R. Jansson,et al.  Evolutionary consequences of changes in species' geographical distributions driven by Milankovitch climate oscillations. , 2000, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[69]  H. Pulliam.  On the relationship between niche and distribution , 2000 .

[70]  M. Taper,et al.  Interspecific Competition, Environmental Gradients, Gene Flow, and the Coevolution of Species' Borders , 2000, The American Naturalist.

[71]  Colwell,et al.  The mid-domain effect: geometric constraints on the geography of species richness. , 2000, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[72]  D. Rind.  Relating Paleoclimate Data and Past Temperature Gradients: Some Suggestive Rules , 2000 .

[73]  B. Shipley.  Cause and correlation in biology , 2000 .

[74]  K. Rohde.  Latitudinal gradients in species diversity and Rapoport's rule revisited: a review of recent work and what can parasites teach us about the causes of the gradients? , 1999 .

[75]  V. Sánchez‐Cordero,et al.  Conservatism of ecological niches in evolutionary time , 1999, Science.

[76]  Sergio Sismondo.  Models, Simulations, and Their Objects , 1999 .

[77]  P. Jones,et al.  Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology , 1999 .

[78]  Jeremy T. Kerr,et al.  Some general propositions about the study of spatial patterns of species richness , 1999 .

[79]  I. Hanski.  Metapopulation dynamics , 1998, Nature.

[80]  M. Kirkpatrick,et al.  Evolution of a Species' Range , 1997, The American Naturalist.

[81]  C. Rahbek.  The Relationship Among Area, Elevation, And Regional Species Richness In Neotropical Birds , 1997, The American Naturalist.

[82]  Karin Frank,et al.  Pattern-oriented modelling in population ecology , 1996 .

[83]  R. Gomulkiewicz,et al.  WHEN DOES EVOLUTION BY NATURAL SELECTION PREVENT EXTINCTION? , 1995, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.

[84]  A. Hoffmann,et al.  Species borders: ecological and evolutionary perspectives. , 1994, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[85]  Robert Haining,et al.  Statistics for spatial data: by Noel Cressie, 1991, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 900 p., ISBN 0-471-84336-9, US $89.95 , 1993 .

[86]  P. Clifford,et al.  Modifying the t test for assessing the correlation between two spatial processes , 1993 .

[87]  Brian A. Maurer,et al.  Energy supply and patterns of species richness on local and regional scales , 1993 .

[88]  Mike Rees,et al.  5. Statistics for Spatial Data , 1993 .

[89]  E. Martins.  The Comparative Method in Evolutionary Biology, Paul H. Harvey, Mark D. Pagel. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1991), vii, + 239 Price $24.95 paperback , 1992 .

[90]  K. Rohde.  Latitudinal gradients in species diversity: the search for the primary cause , 1992 .

[91]  P. Bartlein,et al.  Global Changes During the Last 3 Million Years: Climatic Controls and Biotic Responses , 1992 .

[92]  James H. Brown,et al.  Using Montane Mammals to Model Extinctions Due to Global Change , 1992 .

[93]  R. Ricklefs,et al.  Intercontinental Correlation of Geographical Ranges Suggests Stasis in Ecological Traits of Relict Genera of Temperate Perennial Herbs , 1992, The American Naturalist.

[94]  David H. Wright,et al.  Species-energy theory: an extension of species-area theory , 1983 .

[95]  A. Wallace.  Tropical Nature and Other Essays , 1972 .

[96]  Thomas Herbert Naylor.  Computer Simulation Techniques , 1966 .

[97]  C. Stern.  CONCLUDING REMARKS OF THE CHAIRMAN , 1950 .