The Offsetting Impact of Dependency and Urbanization on Mean Years of Schooling: A Scaling Analysis of 97 Countries

The indicator “mean years of schooling (MYS)” has been one of two education indicators in the Human Development Index calculated by UNDP since 2010. In view of greatly expanded role of education in modern development, this study develops a multivariate panel regression model of socio-economic factors where changing rate of MYS becomes the dependent variable. This research develops a model of socio-economic determining factors where changing the rate of MYS is the dependent variable. The proposed model will include five independent variables to assess the impact on MYS for 97 countries from 1995 to 2017. The most important finding is that dependency with a negative impact on MYS was the most influential factor, followed by urbanization with a positive impact on MYS. The impact from income with a positive impact and population with a negative impact was the third most important factor depending on the income and urbanization subgroup. This study highlighted the offsetting impact of dependency rate and urbanization rate to length of education depending on the income and urbanization subgroups of countries. However, the general policy implications proposed here are subjected to substantial revision if the analysis of scaling results from income and urbanization subgroup analysis are incorporated, because the impact from these two offsetting factors would vary widely depending on the particular subgroup.

[1]  U. Sunde,et al.  The demographic dividend is more than an education dividend , 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[2]  A. Prskawetz,et al.  Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend , 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[3]  R. Hippe,et al.  The long-run impact of human capital on innovation and economic development in the regions of Europe , 2018, Applied Economics.

[4]  Markus Ludwig,et al.  Geography, human capital and urbanization: A regional analysis , 2018, Economics Letters.

[5]  Marcio Cruz,et al.  On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty , 2018 .

[6]  Shujin Zhu,et al.  Economic complexity, human capital and economic growth: empirical research based on cross-country panel data , 2017 .

[7]  M. Haque,et al.  Threshold effects of human capital: Schooling and economic growth , 2017 .

[8]  S. Goetz,et al.  The interactive effects of human capital and quality of life on economic growth , 2016 .

[9]  Ronald Lee,et al.  Demographic Dividends, Human Capital, and Saving. , 2016, Journal of the economics of ageing.

[10]  Cosmo Antonio Ignazzi,et al.  Scaling laws, economic growth, education and crime: Evidence from Brazil , 2014 .

[11]  Mingxing Chen,et al.  The Global Pattern of Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades , 2014, PloS one.

[12]  W. Sanderson,et al.  Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend? , 2014, Demography.

[13]  Matthias Schündeln,et al.  Private versus social returns to human capital: Education and economic growth in India , 2014 .

[14]  Gordon McGranahan,et al.  Urbanization and economic growth: the arguments and evidence for Africa and Asia , 2013 .

[15]  A. Waheed,et al.  Human capital and economic growth: Cross-country evidence from low-, middle- and high-income countries , 2013 .

[16]  R. Ramos,et al.  Regional Economic Growth and Human Capital: The Role of Over-education , 2012 .

[17]  Alok Kumar,et al.  Urbanization, human capital, and cross-country productivity differences , 2012 .

[18]  V. Skirbekk,et al.  FERTILITY-REDUCING DYNAMICS OF WOMEN'S SOCIAL STATUS AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT , 2012 .

[19]  Edinaldo Tebaldi,et al.  Institutions, human capital, and growth: The institutional mechanism , 2012 .

[20]  Glen P. Peters,et al.  Pathways of human development and carbon emissions embodied in trade , 2012 .

[21]  Wolfgang Lutz,et al.  Global Human Capital: Integrating Education and Population , 2011, Science.

[22]  Shinji Kaneko,et al.  Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis , 2010 .

[23]  J. Henderson.  Cities and Development , 2010, Journal of regional science.

[24]  G. T. Gardner,et al.  Household actions can provide a behavioral wedge to rapidly reduce US carbon emissions , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[25]  Sascha O. Becker,et al.  The trade-off between fertility and education: evidence from before the demographic transition , 2009, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[26]  Vinod Mishra,et al.  Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries , 2009 .

[27]  Vida Maralani.  The changing relationship between family size and educational attainment over the course of socioeconomic development: Evidence from Indonesia , 2008, Demography.

[28]  Luisito Bertinelli,et al.  Does Urbanization Foster Human Capital Accumulation? , 2008 .

[29]  Richard York,et al.  Demographic trends and energy consumption in European Union Nations, 1960–2025 , 2007 .

[30]  E. Hanushek,et al.  The Role of Education Quality for Economic Growth , 2007 .

[31]  Benteng Zou,et al.  Sustainable Economic Development and the Environment: Theory and Evidence , 2006 .

[32]  Uwe Sunde,et al.  Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy, and the Process of Development. , 2005, The American economic review.

[33]  A. Kelley,et al.  Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis , 2005 .

[34]  D. Black,et al.  Urbanization and growth , 2004 .

[35]  Ronald Lee,et al.  The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change , 2003 .

[36]  E. Rosa,et al.  A rift in modernity? assessing the anthropogenic sources of global climate change with the STIRPAT model , 2003 .

[37]  Brian Powell,et al.  Reconsidering the effects of sibling configuration: Recent advances and challenges , 2002 .

[38]  J. Henderson,et al.  How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China , 2002 .

[39]  G. Duranton,et al.  Nursery Cities: Urban Diversity, Process Innovation and the Life-Cycle of Products , 2001 .

[40]  Marcelo Soto,et al.  Growth and human capital: good data, good results , 2001 .

[41]  Claudia Buchmann,et al.  Education and Stratification in Developing Countries: A Review of Theories and Research , 2001 .

[42]  Jerik Hanushek,et al.  Schooling, Labor-force Quality, and the Growth of Nations , 2000 .

[43]  R. Barro,et al.  International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications , 2000 .

[44]  B. Curran,et al.  Cellular lipid composition influences stress activation of the yeast general stress response element (STRE). , 2000, Microbiology.

[45]  J. Williamson,et al.  Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia , 1997 .

[46]  E. Rosa,et al.  Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. , 1997, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[47]  C. Lloyd,et al.  Children's Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Fathers, Mothers, and Others , 1996 .

[48]  Jonathan N. Katz,et al.  What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data , 1995, American Political Science Review.

[49]  R. Hauser,et al.  Trends in Family Effects on the Education of Black and White Brothers. , 1995 .

[50]  Jess Benhabib,et al.  The role of human capital in economic development Evidence from aggregate cross-country data , 1994 .

[51]  R. Barro,et al.  International Comparisons of Educational Attainment , 1993 .

[52]  M. A. Khan,et al.  Education, Income, and Desired Fertility in Egypt: A Revised Perspective , 1990, Economic Development and Cultural Change.

[53]  R. Lucas.  On the Mechanics of Economic Development , 1988 .

[54]  P. Ehrlich,et al.  IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH , 1971, Science.

[55]  Helmut Haberl,et al.  A socio‐metabolic transition towards sustainability? Challenges for another Great Transformation , 2011 .

[56]  J. Bongaarts.  The causes of educational differences in fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa , 2010 .

[57]  M. Rogers.  Directly Unproductive Schooling: How Country Characteristics Affect the Impact of Schooling on Growth , 2003 .